Trump Removed Via 25th Amendment Before 2027 Betting Market Just 12 Percent Chance

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President Trump side by side with Iran bombing strike

Some Democratic leaders, and even far-right radio host Alex Jones, were calling on the invoking of the 25th Amendment to remove U.S. President Donald Trump after he threatened to wipe out the "whole civilization" of Iran Tuesday morning. 

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.

"Iran must immediately cease its actions or face consequences unlike anything seen before. The Strait of Hormuz is critical to the world, and any interference will not be tolerated.

"We are watching closely. The world is watching.”

Just 12 percent of those trading at Polymarket believe the 25th Amendment will be invoked.

Section 4 (Involuntarily) would require the Vice President plus majority of Cabinet jointly send a written declaration to Congress.  The Vice President then immediately becomes Acting President.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker was among those calling for the removal of Trump from office. 

"It's past time. The 25th Amendment must be invoked."

By Tuesday night, Iran said it has accepted a two-week ceasefire after Trump said he would suspend attacks subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump issued the following statement regarding the ceasefire: 

“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!

“The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.

“On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution.”

Polymarket Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

  • T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com 

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