Gamblers Aren't Buying Latest USA Ceasefire Offer as Iran Dismisses it

Submitted by t c jackson on

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t c jackson

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Iran conflict

Iranian state television’s English-language broadcaster quoted an anonymous official Wednesday as saying Iran rejected America’s 15-point ceasefire proposal. The proposal was sent even as Washington deploys paratroopers and more Marines to the region.

Two officials from Pakistan, which delivered the plan to Iran, described the 15-point proposal broadly, saying it addressed sanctions relief, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, limits on missiles and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. An Egyptian official involved in the mediation efforts said the proposal also includes restrictions on Iran’s support for armed groups. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not yet released. 

Tehran did not confirm receiving the plan and publicly dismissed the diplomatic effort while launching more attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries, including an assault that sparked a huge fire at Kuwait International Airport. Iran also continued to come under attack.

The gambling public had a ceasefire of the USA-Iran conflict with an 11% chance of happening by March 31 and a 20% chance of happening by April 30 per the Polymarket platform. 

Polymarket featured the following note on Middle East markets: 

"The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not."

U.S. President Donald Trump had said earlier that Iran is eager for a deal to end the conflict. 

Trump told reporters Iran wants “to make a deal,” and he claimed U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader. 

Iran denied those talks had been held. “No negotiations have been held with the US,” Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted on X, adding that “fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”

  • T C Jackson, Gamlbing911.com 

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