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The U.S. and Israel launched a major attack on Iran on Saturday, and President Donald Trump issued a statement shortly thereafter.
Some of the first strikes on Iran appeared to hit areas around the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Smoke could be seen rising from the capital as part of strikes that Iranian media said occurred nationwide. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the 86-year-old leader was in his offices when the attack occurred.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said in a video announcing “major combat operations.” “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”
The strikes during the holy fasting month of Ramadan opened a stunning new chapter in U.S. intervention in Iran and marked the second time in eight months that the Trump administration has used military force against the Islamic Republic.
Kalshi had prediction markets pertaining to the war.
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Half of traders believe Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be out by the end of April. This number remained mostly unchanged after Saturday's news of the U.S. and Israeli attack.
Iranian authorities confronted fresh unrest as memorial ceremonies for those killed in January's protests spilled into the streets, Reuters Reports. Security forces clashed with mourners in several cities, including Abdanan, where gunfire was reported at a cemetery gathering, as chants against Ali Khamenei echoed tactics reminiscent of the 1979 revolution.
Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz This Year?
Odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz this year rose slightly Saturday morning from 36% in recent days to 42%.
If Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to cargo and tanker ships after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from IMF Port Monitor, The New York Times, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, BBC, CNN, SBS, ABC, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera, and the Associated Press.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
