Early Odds for November 2025 Governor, Mayor, Senator Elections
The November 4 elections are sneaking up on a lot of people, but there are a ton of tight races that will shape the nation’s political landscape in the years to come.
Oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag are not sleeping on this important cycle, and they’ve set odds for all of the key races, which you can find below.
BetOnline will also be offering odds for many Propositions on the state ballots. If there are any props or elections you’d like odds created for, please let us know.
Let’s start with the increasingly exciting California Governors race. Katie Porter had emerged as a clear frontrunner, but her campaign has been seriously jolted after Politico released footage of her shouting “Get out of my shot!” to a staffer.
Whilst Porter is still running and a co-favorite alongside Senator Alex Padilla, rivals are shortening and speculation about others joining the race (or reversing earlier withdrawal announcements) is growing.
There are five candidates with better than 10/1 odds on the below list, and it’s worth noting that Padilla, Rick Caruso and Tom Steyer have yet to confirm they are running.
Next California Governor
Alex Padilla +275
Katie Porter +275
Rick Caruso +550
Stephen Cloobeck +550
Antonio Villaraigosa +700
Xavier Becerra +1000
Steve Hilton +1400
Ro Khanna +
Tom Steyer +2800
Betty Yee +5000
Butch Ware +5000
Chad Bianco +5000
Eleni Kounalakis +5000
Eric Garcetti +
Kamala Harris +8000
Toni Atkins +8000
Tony Thurmond +8000
Michael Younger +10000
Nicole Shanahan +10000
Caitlyn Jenner +20000
Mel Gibson +
Next, another 2026 race attracting headlines for the wrong reasons, at least as far as the Democrats are concerned, but Maine enters as a vital race the U.S. Senate.
Graham Platner – a progressive endorsed by Bernie Sanders – admitted yesterday that he had a skull tattoo associated with the Nazis that he unwittingly got while serving as a 23-year-old Marine. Platner had been the early favorite, but had already fallen behind Governor Janet Mills after she entered the race last week. Mills is now a very strong favorite.
Next Maine U.S. Senator
Janet Mills -400
Graham Platner +250
Dan Kleban +3300
Jordan Wood +5000
(NOTE: Odds imply an 80% chance Mills wins election.)
Next South Carolina U.S. Senator
Lindsay Graham -275
Paul Dans +275
Thomas Murphy +900
Mark Lynch +900
(NOTE: Odds imply a 73% chance Graham wins election.)
Of the two big Governor races scheduled for November 4, New Jersey looks to be the more interesting by a wide margin.
Republicans came close to pulling off a huge upset in the previous gubernatorial race in NJ, and we have seen a ton of money come in backing Jack Ciattarelli. Nevertheless, Mikie Sherrill remains a firm favorite for the Democrats.
Next New Jersey Governor
Mikie Sherrill (D) -500
Jack Ciattarelli (R) +375
(NOTE: Odds imply an 83% chance Sherrill wins election.)
New Jersey Governor Margin of Victory
Sherrill 2.50-4.99%
Sherrill 5.00-7.49%
Ciattarelli 0-2.49% +
Sherrill 7.50-9.99%
Sherrill 0-2.49%
Sherrill 10.00-12.49% +
Ciattarelli 2.50-4.99% +
Sherrill 12.50-14.99% +
Sherrill 15% or Higher +2800
Ciattarelli 5% or Higher +4500
Next Virginia Governor
Abigail Spanberger (D) -3000
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) +1400
(NOTE: Odds imply a 97% chance Spanberger wins election.)
Virginia Governor Margin of Victory
Spanberger 10.00-12.49% +265
Spanberger 7.50-9.99% +300
Spanberger 12.50-14.99% +400
Spanberger 5.00-7.49% +400
Spanberger 15% or Higher +700
Spanberger 2.50-4.99% +1200
Earle-Sears 0-2.49% +1500
Spanberger 0-2.49% +2200
Earle-Sears 2.5% or Higher +4000
All the signals surrounding the New York City Mayoral race point to progressive frontrunner Zohran Mamdani, even after incumbent Eric Adams withdrew in a move many assumed would aid Andrew Cuomo.
Next New York City Mayor
Zohran Mamdani -2000
Andrew Cuomo +1000
Curtis Sliwa +10000
(NOTE: Odds imply a 95% chance Mamdani wins election.)
Mamdani Vote Share
50.00-54.99% +
45.00-49.99% +
55.00-59.99% +
60.00-64.99% +
40.00-44.99% +
65% or Higher +3000
Under 40% +6500
A far more competitive race is taking place in Minneapolis, where two Democrats are battling for mayor. Incumbent Jacob Frey remains ahead of progressive Omar Fateh.
Next Minneapolis Mayor
Jacob Frey -225
Omar Fateh +165
(NOTE: Odds imply a 69% chance Spanberger wins election.)
Finally, we have odds for the Mayoral races in Miami and Seattle, as well as projections for the Virginia Attorney General election.
Next Miami Mayor
Eileen Higgins -140
Ken Russell +275
Emilio Gonzalez +450
Xavier Suarez +1200
Joe Carollo +
(NOTE: Odds imply a 58% chance Higgins wins election.)
Next Seattle Mayor
Katie Wilson -350
Bruce Harrell +225
(NOTE: Odds imply a 78% chance Wilson wins election.)
Next Virginia Attorney General
Jason Miyares -140
Jay Jones +
(NOTE: Odds imply a 58% chance Miyares wins election.)
