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Gambling911.com saw three of four of its system games come through for Week 1 of the 2025 college football season. Let's take a look below.
First off, the two primary games for Sunday we do not have anything that stands out. We're talking Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina and the late game between Notre Dame and Miami.
Texas vs. Ohio State
We referred to this one as "taking candy from a baby".
First off, we knew that Texas was seeing greater than 75% of the action as a +2.5 dog. When the books moved this one to a PICK'EM, they were still seeing better than 75%. Oddsmakers moved the line back up to Ohio State -1.5 by Saturday morning and nothing changed in terms of the lopsided action.
Our model has consistently shown that when there is an underlay with the number 3/2.5, favorites cover in 83% of our sampling. In this case, we had the Ohio State number closer to 5.5 and they went on to win by 7 points.
In his first collegiate start, Julian Sayin gave Ohio State a two-score advantage early in the fourth quarter with a 40-yard touchdown pass to Carnell Tate. Add in the defense containing the much-hyped Arch Manning, along with two pivotal stops in the red zone and it resulted in the third-ranked Buckeyes defeating the Longhorns 14-7.
It was the fourth time the No. 1 team in the AP preseason poll has met the previous season’s national champion in the opener. The defending champ has won the last three.
“When you start a season, you want to set the tone," Day said. “There’s a lot of guys who are stepping into roles for the first time ever. And for these guys to step in and really have great energy about them, I thought they were poised. I thought the moment was not too big for them.”
LSU vs. Clemson
Every top capper we follow was backing Clemson to cover in this game. LSU went on to win outright.
Gambling911.com detected an overlay with the favorite Clemson.
In our sampling, when the line is in the 3/3.5 range with an overlay, the underdog has enjoyed success at around an 84% clip over the last two years.
Gamblers weren't entirely fooled as only 60% were backing Clemson on the spread.
Garrett Nussmeier threw a go-ahead 8-yard touchdown pass to Trey’Dez Green in the fourth quarter, and No. 9 LSU rallied past fourth-ranked Clemson 17-10 on Saturday night for its first season-opening win since 2019, when Joe Burrow led the Tigers to an undefeated season and a national championship.
Nussmeier, who eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter in 2024 after biding his time behind Jayden Daniels, got better as game went on, throwing for 134 of his 230 yards in the second half while leading two touchdown drives.
Caden Durham rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown for LSU, which held the ball for all but nine minutes of the second half.
LSU, retooled with a highly touted class of transfers, showed the mental and physical toughness that coach Brian Kelly was seeking after trailing 10-3 at the half.
Auburn vs. Baylor
Same scenario as the Texas-Ohio State game. Our model has consistently shown that when there is an underlay with the number 3/2.5, favorites cover in 83% of our sampling. Auburn went on to beat Baylor on the road Friday night.
Nebraska vs. Cincinnati
Our sampling is limited here but, when the line is 7/6.5 and there is an underlay, the favorite has gone 10-1. Make that 10-2 now as Nebraska may have won, but failed to cover the 6 to 7 point spread.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
