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There is a lot to like when it comes to potentially backing the Kansas City Royals in Minnesota on Saturday.
Moneyline action was mostly balanced with the line having moved from Royals +108 to -125 and the total dropping from 9 to 8.5. Action was greater than 65% on the Over.
PITCHING PROBABLES: Royals: Noah Cameron (5-5, 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 72 strikeouts); Twins: Bailey Ober (4-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 78 strikeouts)
Cameron allowed four runs with one strikeout over 6 1/3 innings in a loss against the Blue Jays on Saturday but had a victory in his prior start.
From ESPN:
Many expected Noah Cameron to regress after the break, since his 2.31 ERA was not fully supported by his underlying metrics. Sure enough, Cameron's ERA rose to 4.14 over his last three post-break efforts, but one was against the Chicago Cubs and another facing the Toronto Blue Jays, two of the most potent lineups in the league. Even with the tough matchups, Cameron performed at a league average level. The Kansas City Royals rookie has a favorable opponent on Saturday, facing the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins offense is well below average, with a high strikeout rate facing left-handers.
While the sampling is small, the Twins have only one hit in 12 at bars vs. Cameron.
The Kansas City Royals career statistics vs. Ober are .302 (35 hits in 116 at bats).
The Royals have 20 RBIs vs. Ober Vinnie Pasquantino is 5 for 16 against him but, interestingly, without any RBIs.
Bobby Witt Jr. is 12 for 25 against him with five RBIs and a home run. Witt has 37 doubles, four triples and 17 home runs for the Royals and is currently among that team's top performers.
Maikel Garcia is 12 for 39 with three doubles, a home run and five RBI over the last 10 games but is just 1 for 12 against Ober.
Ober surrendered four runs in five innings Saturday in a no-decision against the Guardians.
From Rotowire:
More of the same for Ober in his return from the injured list. His velocity was up by about one mph from his season average, but he still managed just eight whiffs in 91 pitches and gave up two homers, bringing his season total to 23 allowed in 94 2/3 innings. Last year, he gave up 27 in 178 2/3 innings. Next week’s matchup is a good one for him, as the Royals lack power. Still, he doesn’t seem like a mixed-league guy right now.
With eight of the last ten games of this series generating no more than 6 runs and Cameron likely to rebound, the Royals and an Under should be considered here once this game is studied further. Watch for Gambling911.com's Saturday MLB analysis to see if we pull the trigger on either.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
