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It shouldn't surprise anybody that the public would be all over the LA Chargers as this game is really only meaningful for them. That is unless pride is not a factor for New England.
BetOnline disclosed on Saturday that the Patriots were among the early sharp favorites.
"The wiseguys tend to become more selective at this point in the season, so there isn't just a ton of volume from the pros right now. Some of the early positions are Patriots +4 (down from +5.5) and the 49ers +3 (down from +4)."
"We were seeing some sharp support on the Rams early on at -5, but the largest sharp bet of the week so far came in and grabbed Arizona as soon as we moved it to +7. Currently, the Cardinals are our largest risk from the sharp side."
Line Analysis and Action
Greater than 80% of the cash and tickets are on the Chargers. The line moved to LA -6 at Circa Sports and dropped back down to -5 after two hours.
The line trend overall has been -5 to -4.5 to -6 to -5.5, so difficult to find past comparable games and outcomes.
Sagarin gives us a number of -5, which is pretty much on the money all things considered.
Chargers Playoff Chances
After a 2-2 start to the 2024 season, the Chargers have gone 7-4.
Entering Week 17 at 9-6 following a win over Denver, Los Angeles has a high chance of claiming one of the conference's three wild-card spots.
The Chargers enter Week 17 as the AFC's No. 6 seed, owning the tiebreaker over the 9-6 Broncos. There are still a few other teams vying for a wildcard spot, including the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts.
The good news for LA is that they only need to win one of their remaining two games to seal the deal.
Obviously, beating New England looks easy on paper. Covering that spread is a different story.
The Chargers plan to activate running back J.K. Dobbins for this game, thus offering a tremendous boost. He suffered a knee injury late in the first half of the Chargers’ 30-23 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Nov. 25.
Dobbins was fourth in the AFC in rushing with 766 yards at the time of his injury. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, seventh highest among NFL backs with at least 150 carries.
Chargers Player to Watch
WR Ladd McConkey — who leads Los Angeles with 69 receptions for 960 yards — can become only the third rookie in franchise history and first since Keenan Allen in 2013 to reach 1,000 receiving yards. McConkey, a second-round selection, also needs three catches to set the Chargers rookie record for catches (Allen had 71 in 2013).
Patriots Player to Watch
QB Drake Maye. He has thrown a touchdown pass in seven consecutive games, tied with Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest such streak by a rookie in franchise history. A touchdown pass this week against the Chargers will extend his streak and set a rookie team record with eight consecutive games with a TD pass.
Key Matchup
Chargers defense vs. Patriots offense. Los Angeles has been particularly stingy, holding opposing offenses to a league-low 18.3 points per game. New England’s offense is coming off one of its best starts of the season last week, jumping to a 14-0 lead over Buffalo. But the Patriots have scored 20 or more points in six of their 15 games.
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