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In other times, the Falcons playoff chances might not be so rosy. Fortunately for them, the schedule is their friend. Atlanta faces just one team with a winning record the rest of the way.
Their path to a post season relies heavily on a division title. The Bucs are the only team standing in the way there but it's not as if Tampa is playing badly of late. They just beat the Chargers 40-10 in LA and won their 4th straight game. The Bucs are 8-6 Straight Up while the Falcons are 6-7 Straight Up coming into Monday night's game. In theory, Atlanta should have no problem moving to 7-7 against the Raiders, but stranger things have happened.
Atlanta may be due for a cover here considering they've failed to cover the spread in their last four games. They also haven't won in any of those. The last four games they've won, they've covered.
7 Features of AcePerHead.com Football Betting Software
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Line Analysis
Sagarin gave us a line of 3.23, which is right where the line kicked off. It's since moved up to -5.5, favoring Atlanta, which is an overlay. And within this line range, the dog tends to fare relatively well.
Comparables
We would love for a road favorite that has seen its price move from -3/-3.5 to -5/-5.5, and an overlay detected after said movement.
There were plenty of road dogs going from +3.5 to +5.5 and +6, but none among the data we've compiled of late with the -3 to -5.5.
We had to look towards college football for games.
The line on Memphis facing off against West Virginia for the Frisco Bowl this week just happens to face that pattern with a movement from -3 to -5 and a 1.94 Overlay.
The only other game we can find was Miami -3.5 to -5 Louisville featuring a 2.01 Overlay. Here the road favorite covered.
Key Matchup
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins vs. Raiders defense. Cousins has been intercepted the past four games, and he has been picked off six times combined the past two weeks. Las Vegas' best hope in forcing Cousins into even more mistakes is pressuring, and the Raiders have nine sacks over the past two weeks. They also had two interceptions against the Bucs.
Pick
We will be on Atlanta -5.5 here.
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