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A critical game is on tap for the Tampa Bay Bucs as they need to stay relevant and break away from their division rival the Atlanta Falcons in order to make the post season.
Their opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, have nothing more to play for than pride with their 2-10 record.
Tampa comes into this game as a -7 home favorite with the line having shifted at times to -6.5. The Bucs are looking to win their third straight game.
Line Analysis
85% of the spread action was on Tampa here.
Sagarin gives us a number of 8.14. We do have an underlay with the line Tampa -7.
Comparables
We would only consider games where the line sat on the 7 favoring the home team with some shifts to 6.5 and a small underlay. Steady +6.5 for the road team also works. Trending in either direction (7 to 6.5 and vice versa) does not work here.
- NC State +6.5 /+7 Clemson (home favorite covers and wins by 10) Clemson 7.43 On the Money, slight underlay - Home favorite covers.
- Tulsa +6.5 / +7 Memphis (home favorite Memphis covers and wins big) Memphis 8.39 Underlay 1 to 2 points - Home favorite covers.
- Giants +6.5 Browns (Browns 8.31 Underlay) - Road dog covers.
Raiders Player to Watch
LB K’Lavon Chaisson had a 42.1% pressure rate against the Chiefs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s the highest rate for a player with at least 15 pass rushes. If he and the Raiders can get another strong rush against the Bucs, that should disrupt QB Baker Mayfield’s timing with his talented receivers.
Bucs Player to Watch
Rookie RB Bucky Irving is coming off consecutive games with 150-plus yards from scrimmage, sparking an offense that sputtered without injured WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin during a four-game losing streak. Irving leads the team with 732 yards rushing, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He ran for 152 yards and a touchdown last week, finishing with a season-high 185 yards from scrimmage. Irving ranks first among rookies in scrimmage yards (1,017). Raiders TE Brock Bowers (895) is second.
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