Iowa State vs. Arizona State Betting Preview

Arizona State opened as a -1 point favorite hosting Iowa State.  The line had moved to -2.5 but dropped back down to -2.

What’s at Stake?

The Big 12 championship in the conference's first season as a 16-team league and a spot in the College Football Playoff. League newcomer Arizona State, which has never won an outright conference championship in any league, is looking for its first 11-win season since 1996. The Cyclones already have 10 wins for the first time in program history. This is their second Big 12 title game appearance after a loss to Oklahoma in 2020.

What the Line Should Be

Sagarin gives us a line of Arizona State -2, which is accurate and there is no edge without looking at past games with a similar accurate line with the home team favored between -1 and -2.5. It should be noted that NFL games in this range with an accurate line do bode well for the favorite.

Comparables

We would be looking for games that had the road team between +2 and +2.5 with an accurate line.  We are not looking at games that hit the number 3. That's unlikely to occur since the line is now trending downwards off the 2.5.

• Denver +1.5 to +2.5 Las Vegas (home favorite covers and wins by 9) Vegas 0.90 - On the Money to a 1.5 Overlay - The home favorite covers.  This one mostly mimics the line move in this game but with a bit of an overlay with the 2.5.
• Indianapolis +2.5 Tennessee (home favorite Tenn covers and wins by 9 points) Tenn 2.01 On the Money - Home favorite covers.
• Washington +2 to +2.5 Rutgers (Rutgers 2.72 On The Money) - Home favorite covers.
• Chiefs +2.5 Bills (Bills 1.46 Slight Overlay/On The Money) Balanced Action - Home team covers.
• Cowboys +2.5 Steelers (Steelers On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Oklahoma State +2.5 Baylor (road dog Oklahoma State covers and wins by a lot) Baylor 3.3 On the Money - The road dog covered but with a slight underlay observed.

Key Matchup

Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo vs. the Iowa State defense. Skattebo has rushed for 1,397 yards and 17 touchdowns, ranking third in the Big 12 and eighth nationally with 127.1 yards rushing per game. He is the only 1,000-yard rusher in FBS who also has 400 yards receiving (468). His 1,866 yards from scrimmage are 40 short of setting the single-season school record. The Cyclones have one of the league's best overall defenses, but rank 14th allowing 173.7 yards rushing per game.

Players to Watch

Arizona State: Safety Xavion Alford has allowed only seven receptions for 76 yards while playing 424 snaps in coverage this season.

Iowa State: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are the first set of Cyclones receivers to both have 1,000 yards in the same season, and the only receiving pair in the country to do that this season. Higgins has 80 catches for 1,068 yards and nine TDs, while Noel has caught 67 passes for 1,013 yards and six scores.

Final Consideration

Do consider the home favorite Arizona State here but we're not exactly sure about pulling the trigger.  Look to see if top cappers are backing the Sun Devils.  Comparables are tending towards the favorite in this scenario.