Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview December 6

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4 Straight Up) visit the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4 Straight Up) as a +3.5 underdog.

Western Kentucky dropped two of their last three games, winning the last game against this same Jacksonville State team.

Lucas Carneiro kicked four field goals and his last one from 50 yards with three seconds left gave Western Kentucky a 19-17 win over Jacksonville State on Saturday.

With the win, the Hilltoppers (8-4, 6-2) secured a trip to the Conference USA title game on Dec. 6 which will feature a rematch between these two teams.

Jacksonville State (8-4, 7-1) secured the top seed and the right to host the conference championship game last week beating Sam Houston 21-11. Against Western Kentucky, Gamecocks' starting quarterback Tyler Huff left the contest due to injury and never returned. He plays a critical role in the Gamecocks’ run-based offense and left after rushing for 97 yards on 13 carries.

The Gamecocks started the season 0-3 before going on to win eight straight ahead of last weekend's loss.

What the Line Should Be

We get a number of Jacksonville State 4.1.

Huff exited in the second half of the regular season finale loss to Western Kentucky with an ankle injury and his status is up in the air.

The line has only moved from Jacksonville -3 to -3.5 as of Tuesday.

Comparables

We look for similar games where the road team was a dog and the line moved from +3 to +3.5 with either a slight underlay or an accurate line.  The underlay here is less than one point with the 3.5.

Likewise we can look to games where the spread was stead at +3.5.

• Jets +3 to +3.5 Pittsburgh (road team dog Jets cover and win by 4 points) Pittsburgh 4.91 Underlay of 1.5 to 2 - Road dog covers.
• New York Jets +3 to +3.5 Miami (home favorite Miami covers ). Miami 4.80 Underlay 1 to 1.5 points - Home favorite covers.
• Arizona State +3.5 Texas Tech (Texas Tech 4.67 Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
• Cardinals +3.5 Vikings (Vikings 3.91 On The Money) 68% of action on Vikings. - The road dog did manage to cover here.
• Carolina +3.5 New Orleans (road dog Carolina covers and wins) New Orleans 3.23 On the Money - Road dog covers here.
• Miami +3.5 Baltimore (road dog Miami wins) Baltimore 4.38 1 point underlay - The road dog covered.
• Jets +3.5 New England (home favorite NE covers and wins) NE 5.22 Underlay of 2 points - Home favorite covers.
• USC +3 to +3.5 Tulane (home favorite Tulane covers) Tulane 6.28 Underlay 2.5 to 3 - Home favorite covers but the underlay is a bit more in this game than what we are looking at here.

As you can plainly see, this is mostly a wash.

We would note that underlays in the 3/3.5 range in college football tend to do well for the favorites.