Chiefs Will Have Tough Time Staying Undefeated vs. Bills

Most of the G911 Sports Hub top handicappers were backing the Bills to cover the spread against Kansas City late Sunday afternoon.  Considering Buffalo is the favorite, this will be no easy task for the Chiefs to remain undefeated.

Comparables Do Favor Chiefs Covering Though

Chiefs @ Bills

Opening Line - The line opened at Bills -2.5

Line Trend  - This one was holding at -2.5 most books but a few had brought the number all the way down to -1.

Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of Bills 1.46.  We have the slightest overlay but otherwise the number is mostly accurate. 

Action Trend – Action was relatively balanced.

Comparables

*The favorite has tended to perform better with a more significant overlay.  We have not seen the number in this game hit the 3.  Therefore we are not using comparables that have hit the 3.

• Cowboys +2.5 Steelers (Steelers On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Vikings +2 to +3 Packers (Packers 2.75 On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Oklahoma State +2.5 Baylor (road dog Oklahoma State covers and wins by a lot) Baylor 3.3 On the Money - Road dog covers.
• Mississippi State +2.5 Ole Miss (road dog Miss State wins outright) Ole Miss 0.82 Overlay of 1.5 - Road dog covers.
• Indianapolis +2.5 Tennessee (home favorite Tenn covers and wins by 9 points) Tenn 2.01 On the Money - Home favorite covers.

Chiefs Player to Watch

WR DeAndre Hopkins has exceeded every expectation from when Kansas City acquired him for a conditional fifth-round pick from Tennessee. He has 14 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns in his first three games for the Chiefs; by comparison he had 15 catches for 173 yards and one TD in six games with the Titans. He also commands attention from the defense, and that has allowed Travis Kelce and others to flourish the past three weeks.

Bills Player to Watch

Linebacker Terrel Bernard missed the playoff meeting in January because of an ankle injury. The dual-purpose player could have made a difference in an outing in which the Chiefs finished with 146 yards rushing and allowed Kelce to score twice, with Taylor Swift celebrating each of the touchdowns in an end zone suite.

Key Matchup

Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. Fasten in for a premier showdown between two of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, which has traditionally played to expectations. In seven meetings, Mahomes is 4-3 while combining for 2,024 yards passing, with 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, plus 219 yards rushing with a TD and lost fumble. Allen has combined for 1,801 yards passing with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 393 yards rushing and four TDs with a lost fumble.

Key Injuries

Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) is expected to play for the first time since Week 7. ... RB Isiah Pacheco (ankle) and DE Charles Omenihu (ACL) returned to practice this week but are unlikely to be ready for the Bills. ... Kansas City placed kicker Harrison Butker on IR due to a knee injury, and replaced him by signing Spencer Shrader off the New Jets’ practice squad. ... Bills rookie WR Keon Coleman (wrist) has been ruled out and will miss a second game. ... Starting TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) has also been ruled out. ... WR Amari Cooper is progressing from a wrist injury that has sidelined him the past two games. ... Starting RT Spencer Brown is questionable due to an ankle injury. ... LB Matt Milano (torn left biceps) resumed practicing this week after getting hurt in August but won’t be ready by Sunday.