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Polymarket has just released a betting market on whether Ukraine will strike Moscow by the end of September.
The market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow or any target within the municipality between September 4 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Find dozens of politic prop bets here
In under 24 hours, some $6000 had been wagered on this market with around 30% believing Ukraine will hit Moscow by September 30.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told U.S. and allied military leaders Friday as Kyiv more fervently pressed the West to loosen weapons use restrictions and allow it to target Russian air bases and launch sites far from the border.
Zelenskyy made the case during an in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. He appeared to make inroads with some of the defense leaders from the 50-plus partner nations who regularly gather to coordinate weapons aid for the war.
His request comes after a series of recent deadly Russian airstrikes, including against a Ukrainian military training center that killed more than 50 and wounded hundreds this week. On Friday, the Kremlin fired five ballistic missiles at the city of Pavlohrad in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring at least 50 people, regional Gov. Serhii Lysak said.
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