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U.S. President Joe Biden is adding to the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, insisting he needs to do more to work towards a cease fire.
Biden's push comes just days after six hostages were confirmed killed by Gaza. Among those whose bodies were recovered, Berkeley, California resident Hersh Goldberg-Polin. The 23-year-old lost part of his left arm to a grenade blast in the Oct. 7 attack. In April, a Hamas-issued video showed him with his left hand missing, sparking new protests in Israel urging the government to do more to secure his and others’ freedom.
A general strike in Israel to protest the failure to reach a deal and secure the return of hostages led to closures and other disruptions around Israel on Monday.
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Hundreds of thousands of Israelis had poured into the streets late Sunday in grief and anger after six more hostages were found dead in Gaza. It appeared to be the largest protest since the start of the war. The families and much of the public blamed Netanyahu, saying the hostages could have been returned alive in a deal with Hamas.
But others support Netanyahu’s strategy of maintaining military pressure on Hamas, whose Oct. 7 attack into Israel triggered the war. They say it will force the militants to give in to Israeli demands and ultimately annihilate the group.
While the betting public believes a ceasefire is likely before January 1, 2025 (57%), the war is likely to carry on through the fall, assuming gamblers are correct.
Manifold offers a Gaza/Israel Ceasefire betting market.
Manifold Ceasefire Betting Market
13%
October 1st or earlier
26%
November 1st or earlier
37%
December 1st or earlier
40%
January 1st or earlier
57%
How Manifold Will Resolve This Market
Each answer will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before the listed date, and fighting actually stops for atleast one day. The ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence. Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end. As soon as each date passes (Israel time) without a ceasefire, that answer resolves NO.
Remember: Multiple options can resolve YES. So if there is a ceasefire announced on July 16th, "August 1st or earlier" AND all later answers resolve YES.
If by January 1st, 2025 there is no ceasefire, "No ceasefire in 2024" will resolve YES, and all other markets will have already resolved NO.
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