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Prediction market Manifold has released odds on whether Donald Trump's shooter was a registered Republican or a right winger.
Initially the betting markets had the then suspect as a registered Democrat at around 75%. By Midnight, the shooter was identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, a registered Republican. But nothing is really known as of yet about his recent political beliefs outside of having donated a small amount of money to a progressive cause. Only 12 percent believe Crooks was a central or far-right leaning individual.
The FBI has since said it believes Crooks, who had bomb-making materials in the car he drove to the rally, acted alone.
Immediately following the shooting, BetOnline pulled it U.S. presidential election odds. Two hours later, the odds were reposted with Trump jumping from -180 to -300.
Here is how the outcome will be resolved at Manifold:
Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Center-right is still right-wing, this is from the perspective of American politics.
For example: If they posted about as much centrist, progressive, and conservative content, resolves NO. If they have only posted only one right-wing meme and no other political content ever, resolves NO, but a small amount of right-wing posts would resolve YES. Can resolves based on archives of their social media accounts, media reports, etc.
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