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At 30-1 odds for a payout of $3000 for every $100 bet, Catalytic has some value in winning this year's Kentucky Derby.
Catalytic was sired by Catalina Cruiser out of the Distorted Humor mare One Show Only.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Catalytic Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Post Position (10)
Catalytic will be starting from the winningest position with 10 champions. Four have come since 2000: War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017).
Jockey (8)
With jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, Catalytic was timed in :47.80 for the half-mile in his final workout ahead of the Kentucky Derby.
In 2016, he was the leading jockey in North America by number of wins, including his first win at the Breeders' Cup.
He rode Good Magic to a second-place finish in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and was promoted to third on Tacitus in 2019. Ortiz won the 2017 Belmont Stakes riding Tapwrit and a 2022 Preakness win with Early Voting.
More Reason to Bet on Catalytic (5)
Lack of experience has resulted in bettors being weary about backing Catalytic. This has only helped to enhance his value in the parimutuel pools.
Why Catalytic Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Past Performances (3)
As noted above, he's lacking with just one graded race entry. It was a biggie of course - the Florida Derby - and included an impressive 2nd place finish. It should be noted that he was beaten 13 1/2 lengths by Fierceness.
Trainer (4)
Saffie Joseph Jr. had to scratch his Kentucky Derby entrants last year after two of his horses died.
The decision to reinstate him comes after an investigation by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and the release of necropsy reports of the two horses that died under Joseph’s care.
Necropsies did not find any conclusive causes, according to the commission website. Sudden deaths are rare and the causes often unexplainable.
“We remain deeply concerned about the condition of Parents Pride and Chasing Artie that led to their sudden death,” said Bill Mudd, president and COO of Churchill Downs Inc. “However, given the details available to us as a result of the KHRC investigation, there is no basis to continue Joseph’s suspension.”
Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby
After Post Position Draw
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +1500
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
Early
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +2000
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
