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We’re down to eight in the playoffs, first of the four games finding the 10-7 (regular season) Houston Texans visiting the top-seeded, 13-4 Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Saturday afternoon.
Houston was a surprising winner of the AFC South, carrying that momentum to a convincing, 45-14 wild-card home win over the Cleveland Browns. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, in his first postseason game, took down the Browns (274 passing yards, three touchdowns), becoming the NFL-youngest quarterback ever to win a game in the playoffs.
Baltimore was accorded a week off, winning a half-ozen games in row before s meaningless loss in the final game (more about them in a minute).
Baltimore is a nine-point favorite (total at 44½), according to NFL odds.
Moneyline is Ravens -410, Texans +325.
Stroud in Stride
The Houston Texans made a terrific selection in the last draft, tabbing Ohio St. quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second selection in the first round. Stroud (4,199 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions) has nine touchdown passes (no picks) in his last nine (including last week).
Wide receiver Nico Collins (80 receptions, 1,297 yards, eight touchdowns), scorched the Browns (half-dozen catches), while tight end Brevin Jordan’s lone catch was a 76-yard score.
Defensively mid-pack (330.3 yards per game), but stingy (94 yards/game) against the run.
Houston will need to find a way to spy on Lamar Jackson in this game, one of its challenges.
Ravens on Roll
The Baltimore Ravens have been blowing teams much of the season, 28.4 points/game (third in NFL), while surrendering a league-fewest 16½ points/game.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson (3,678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions) added a team-leading 821 rushing yards (five touchdowns). If not Jackson as a ground menace, there’s Gus Edwards (81 yards, 13 touchdowns).
Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers (77 receptions, 858 yards, five touchdowns) became a Jacson favorite during the season.
Baltimore ended No. 4 in total defense (301.4 yards/game).
Ravens in Rout
Baltimore is 11-4 (+275) to win the title, Houston at 28-1 (+2800), as per Super Bowl LVIII odds.
It’s been a tremendous season with the Houston Texans in general, C.J. Stroud in particular. However, this game is probably above their pay grade.
Baltimore doesn’t appear to have any weaknesses to exploit, figuring to take control of this game on both sides of the ball. Playing at home won’t hurt them.
Betting the Baltimore Ravens -9 to win and advance to the title game in the AFC.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
