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After Week 7, teams that were a -2.5 or -3 point favorite without crossing above the 3 have covered in 16 out of 20 games analyzed. This is a pretty sick trend that has been especially profitable. There is no denying that. Week 6 was the coldest for this trend and teams still went 3-2 Against The Spread.
Week 7 our trend went 3-1 for the favorite.
With the Thursday night game, New Orleans vs. Arizona, we got a number of 3.12 that favored the Cardinals and an accurate line. Arizona won this game by 8 points and now owns a 3-4 record Straight Up. We racked up another win for this trend.
With Indiana vs. Tennessee we got a number of 2.01 for a line that was mostly on the money at Titans -2.5 and they too added another win to this hot trend. Tennessee won by 9 points.
Kansas City vs. San Francisco - The line on this game had gone from KC -3 to -2. We got 2.36, resulting in yet another accurate line. And this was another win for our trend.
The one loser with the dog coming through: The New York Giants. Even if Jacksonville did manage a victory in the final two minutes, they probably would not have covered the spread.
So this brings us to Week 8.
The Ravens vs. Bucs could fit the trend at some point this week. The line on this game had been hovering between -1 and -1.5 as of Monday.
The New England Patriots make the cut so far as they hit the -2.5 on Monday. Provided they don't go above the 3, New England could prove a good pick here.
Once again the Giants are looking to ruin things as the +3 dog versus Seattle on the road. This one had moved up to -3 by Monday so it could move above that number. Seattle might be your play if things hold up. There's potentially a stronger trend however as the wrong team is favored and that one makes the dog enticing. We get a number of 1.58 Giants using the Week 7 Sagarin numbers. New York's power rating will likely rise too.
The Rams have been flirting with the -2.5 early in their game against San Francisco. That line had dropped back down shaprly to -1.5 by Monday evening.
Cincinnati vs. Cleveland mostly have the Bengals at -3 and under, though we've seen this one go above that key number.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
