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The Baylor Bears football team completely turned things around last season, finishing 11-2 Straight Up and 9-4 Against The Spread. Keep in mind they only won two games the year prior. In 2022 oddsmakers had these Bears pegged to win OVER 7.5 regular season games. After Week 6, the Bears had won three games. Betting on the Baylor Bears is available from all U.S. states courtesy of NitroBetting here.
Week 8 vs. Kansas
Baylor was looking to rebound from a loss to West Virginia. The line was coming in at Baylor -9.5. This one opened at -9.5 and had dipped to -7.5 before coming back up again.
We got a number of Baylor 7.12 indicating a line that was On the Money to a 2.5 overlay.
Some comparables included:
USC -7.5 / -9.5 / -10 (briefly) vs. Stanford (Favorite USC big cover and win by 13) USC 4.73 Underlay 3 to 5 points
West Virginia +10 to +7.5 vs. Texas (home favorite Texas covers and wins by 18) Texas 7.86 Overlay of 2 to On the Money
MSU +7 to +8.5 Maryland (home favorite Maryland covers and wins by 14) Maryland 3.59 Overlay of 3.5 to 4.5
Kansas +7.5 to +10 Oklahoma (Favorite Oklahoma covers with 10 point win) OK 7.77 On the Money to a 2 point Overlay
Baylor has owned this series. We would lean towards a Baylor cover at the -9.5.
Week 7 @ West Virginia Mountaineers
The Baylor Bears entered this game with a 3-2 record Sraight Up having already lost the total number of games they did last season. They were 3-2 Against The Spread and will take on a West Virginia team that is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS.
The Bears opened as a -4.5 road favorite in this one. We got a number of Baylor 5.16, so this line was definitely on the money.
Offshore books opened at -3.5 Baylor and the books were not coming off that number. That was a 1.5 underlay.
Comparables included:
The road favorite is -3 or -3.5:
Iowa State -3 / -3.5 vs. KU. The home dog KU covered and won by 3. This one was on the money.
FAU -3 to -5.5 vs. Ohio also had the home dog win. This game was on the money to a 2.5 overlay.
Baylor ultimately lost this one by 3 points, marking yet another time in which the home dog (West Virginia) covered and, in this case, won outright.
Baylor Bears 2022 Schedule
Saturday
Sep. 3 UAlbany Great Danes McLane Stadium, Waco, TX 7:00pm ETESPN+
Saturday
Sep. 10 at BYU Cougars LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT 10:15pm ETESPN
Saturday
Sep. 17 Texas State Bobcats McLane Stadium, Waco, TX 12:00pm ETFS1
Saturday
Sep. 24 at Iowa State Cyclones Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Oct. 1 Oklahoma State Cowboys McLane Stadium, Waco, TX Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Oct. 8 OFF
Thursday
Oct. 13 at West Virginia Mountaineers Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV 7:00pm ETFS1
Saturday
Oct. 22 Kansas Jayhawks McLane Stadium, Waco, TX Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Oct. 29 at Texas Tech Red Raiders Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Nov. 5 at Oklahoma Sooners Gaylord Family OK Mem. Stadium, Norman, OK Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Nov. 12 Kansas State Wildcats McLane Stadium, Waco, TX Time TBA ETTV TBA
Saturday
Nov. 19 TCU Horned Frogs McLane Stadium, Waco, TX Time TBA ETTV TBA
Friday
Nov. 25 at Texas Longhorns DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX Time TBA ETABC or ESPN
Saturday
Dec. 3Big 12 Championship AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 12:00pm ET ABC
Week 5 vs. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State was a solid +2.5 vs Baylor with little in the way of any line change. The dog won this game outright even with the line on the money.
One of the comparables here just happened to be a prior Baylor game. Baylor +2.5 Iowa State and, in this case, the Bears as road dogs were outright winners. In this one, Baylor should have been favored (the wrong team was favored) and we had an overlay of 4 points.
Two other comparables also resulted in dogs winning.
Mississippi State -2.5 vs. LSU where, again, the wrong team was favored and we had a 7-point overlay. LSU won in a big way.
North Dakota State -2.5 vs. Arizona had the Wildcats win by 3 points and covering the spread by a half a point. The wrong team was also favored in this one.
Having a stable line of 2.5 doesn't always mean that the dog will cover. These previous games resulted in favorite victories. Therefore it is important to look at other similarities. For example, none of these games had lines that were on the money.
Coastal Carolina -2.5 Georgia State (favorite Coastal Carolina covers and wins by a lot) Coastal Carolina 6.00 Underlay 3.5 points.
North Texas +2.5 UNLV (Favorite UNLV covers and wins big) 15.56 - Underlay Massive 13.5
Vanderbilt +2.5 Northern Illinois (Favorite Van covers and wins by 10) - Vanderbilt 1.26 Wrong Team Favored Overlay 4.
This article was originally published on October 9, 2022 and was updated on October 21, 2022
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
