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Favorites of 3 points or just under have managed to cover the spread eight of nine times so far this season in the NFL, making for one of the hottest trends.
To be clear, we do not count games where the line moved above the number 3. Nor do we consider numbers posted prior to this past week. Understanding the line movements is crucial in winning with this particular trend, assuming it continues. We also monitor specific books. It's indeed possible that the line moved above the number 3 at some books we pay little mind to.
It should be noted that we do not following games where the line has stayed at 2 or under, failing to hit 2.5.
There are three games this weekend that have hovered around the number 3 that do not match this criteria as they have gone above that number: Bengals-Ravens, Dolphins-Jets and Lions-Patriots.
It's interesting to note that, of the three games where the line has moved below and above the key number 3, the favorite has won in all of those as well.
The favorite is 6-7 in games that have stayed at or just above the number 3, noting that the line would have to have hit 3.5 at some point to count. A game line that has only gone from -4 to 4-5 over the course of the week would not count.
Week 5 Games Fitting the Hot Trend
LA Chargers -3 to -1.5 Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans -2.5 to -1 Washington Commanders
These are the Games That We Analyzed This Season
Buffalo -2.5 LA Rams (road favorite Buffalo covers with big win) Buffalo 2.21 On the Money
New England -1 to -2.5 Pittsburgh (road favorite New England covers with 3 point win) New England 1.43 On the Money to Overlay of 1
Minnesota +1.5 / +2.5 Philadelphia (home favorite Philadelphia covers with big win) Philadelphia 4.39 - Underlay of 2 to 3 points
Baltimore -2.5/-3 New England (road favorite Baltimore covers with 11 point win) Baltimore 2.77 On the Money
New Orleans -3 to -2.5 Carolina (home dog covered and won by 8 points) New Orleans 0.61 Overlay of 2 to 2.5 points
Las Vegas -1.5 / 2.5 Tennessee (home team favorite Tennessee covers and wins by 2 points) Las Vegas 2.17 On the Money
Houston +2.5 to +3 Chicago (home team favorite Chicago covers and wins by 3) 3.03 On the Money
Denver +1.5 to +2.5 Las Vegas (home favorite covers and wins by 9) Vegas 0.90 - On the Money to a 1.5 Overlay
LA Rams +1.5 to +2.5 San Francisco (home favorite San Francisco covers and wins big) San Francisco 1.66 On the Money to Overlay of 1
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
