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The line on this game was coming in at Alabama -4. Some had the line at -3.5. Gambling911.com has the line at Crimson Tide -7.
A Review of the Past Week Results
Just a quick check out how our Edge Analyses for the past week has gone.
Villanova vs. Baylor - The Bears did have the slight edge in a couple of areas including primarily as the home favorite moneyline priced around -200. Not only did they win outright, they easily covered the -4.5 spread with a 21-point win.
Arizona vs. Illinois - The Wildcats had the edge in most cagegories while Illinois did have a slight edge based only on a half point overlay and the Fighting Illini being due to win one Against The Spread. Arizona was between a -1.5 and -2.5 favorite. They did cover by 4 points.
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame - We did like the Wildcats by 4 points with Notre Dame only having a slight edge in the Head-to-Head trends. They did manage to stun Kentucky, however, even with a 1.5 point underlay recognized. S*** happens.
Missouri vs. Kansas - We had Mizzou +25. But the Jayhawks managed to destroy Missouri. This one had all the hallmarks of a situation where the significant overlay was indeed warranted.
Wisonsin vs. Ohio State - We liked OSU winning on the moneyline and they did in fact cover.
BYU vs. Creighton - We had Creighton -7 and they covered with an 11-point win.
We wrote: "Creighton's Against The Spread losses have mostly been a result of lines in the double digits including three games where they were listed at -19 or greater. Assuming our line is correct, Creighton would be the biggest underdog of the season, making them all the more appealing. So far, they've lost a game as a +3.5 underdog (vs. CSU) and won a game as a +3 dog at Nebraska."
Edge Analysis
Head-to-Head: No Edge - Alabama beat Memphis at home last season as a -4 point favorite last time they met but that was in 2017.
ATS Due: No Edge
As an Underdog/Favorite, More Trends: Memphis Slight Edge - As a favorite, Alabama is 43-13-0 Straight Up since 2019 for a win rate of nearly 77%. Memphis though is 9-3 Against The Spread as an underdog since 2019 and that is a 75% cover rate with a decent size sampling. As Home Team, Memphis has gone 29-5-0 Straight Up since 2019 and, the one time they were an underdog at home, won that game outright. As an underdog overall, they are 3-9 SU since 2019.
Recent Trends: Memphis Slight Edge - Memphis lost their last four games but the last three were all within 3 to 4 points. Of Alabama's last eight wins, six have been by more than the current spread.
Overlay/Underlay: Alabama Big Edge - There is an underlay of 4 to 4.5 points.
Memphis got off to a fast 5-0 start before dropping their last four games. It's too early to know if this is just a momentary setback.
Ronald Evans of FanSided makes a really good point and we're sort of on the same page as this big underlay looks a bit suspicious.
"After back-to-back wins over Gonzaga and Houston, the Crimson Tide is vulnerable to being emotionally flat on Tuesday night. In that sense, the contest is a bit like a trap game with a possibly less intense Tide and a talented Memphis team hungry for a win."
Memphis +4.5 looks like the play here, albeit a small one
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
