Alabama Crimson Tide Spread vs. Auburn November 26 Opens at Tide -24

Written by :

Don Shapiro

Published on :

19 November, 2022

(November 19, 2022) - The Alabama Crimson Tide football team, once ranked as the most likely to win the College Football Playoff Championship in 2022-23, had suffered two losses ahead of its game versus the Austin Peay Governors, where they were listed as a -43 favorite. The team had not been particularly profitable for sports bettors either as it owned a 5-5 record Against The Spread. The team did have its first ranked road win in three attempts, which helped the Tide move up one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 8. Alabama sat just four spots out of the playoff race currently. Its odds of winning the 2022-23 College Football Playoff Championship had dropped all the way to +25000 at FanDuel.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers

The Alabama vs. Auburn game line opened very early at Alabama -24. Despite their 4-6 record, Auburn was still appearing within the top 50 of the Sagarin Ratings at No. 48. We get a magic number of 18.78, indicating an overlay of up to 6 points.

Overlays of greater than five points in games we've analyzed this season have gone: 2-12.

Last year's game in this series was a win by Alabama but by a mere 2 points in overtime. The Tide is only 7-3 in this series, but more importantly, Alabama has only covered this current spread three times in the last ten.

Alabama Crimson Tide Recent Line Trends

Prior to the Austin Peay game, Alabama failed to cover on the road against a solid Ole Miss team despite the victory and the -11.5 line deemed as on the money by Gambling911.com.

Weeks earlier, Alabama faced its toughest test of the season at Tennessee where they also failed to cover a -9.5 spread after winning 52-49. The line on this game had moved from Alabama -7.5 to -9. We had a number of Alabama 4.05, which was a point more than the win. There was an overlay of 3.5 to 5 on this game.