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"Do the Lions truly view Jared Goff as a viable quarterback for the future?" This was the blaring headline from PrideofDetroit Sunday morning following news that Matthew Stafford had been traded to the LA Rams for Jared Goff. We here at Gambling911.com know how the oddsmakers feel about this trade based on the dramatic shift in futures odds Saturday night once the news broke.
Early last week, Colorado-based SportsBetting.com had pegged the Rams with 18/1 odds to win the 2022 Super Bowl, which was tied for eighth-best. By Sunday morning, the Rams had the third shortest odds at 10/1.
Detroit?
The Lions had the longest odds of any team other than the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the 2022 Super Bowl.
The #Lions had more than 6 offers, including a few worth more than a 1st round pick. But Detroit taking on #Rams QB Jared Goff cost LA more. So it ends up as two future 1st rounders and more thanks to Goff’s contract.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 31, 2021
Jeremy Reisman of PrideofDetroit points out that Lions general manager Brad Holmes is more than familiar with Goff. He was director of college scouting when the Rams drafted Goff back in 2016. When Rams general manager Les Snead turned to him before draft day that year and asked Holmes if Goff was worth trading up to get in the draft, without hesitation Holmes said yes.
Reisman writes:
Two years ago, it would’ve been unthinkable for Goff to be considered a salary cap dump in a trade. In 2018, Goff ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.4), eighth in passer rating (101.1), 10th in QBR (63.6) and seventh in PFF grade (85.5).
The Lions are clearly trying to build a team that can run the ball successfully under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, and that’s when Goff is at his best. It’s no coincidence that Goff’s stats plummeted in the past two seasons when the Rams ranked 27th (2019) and 17th (2020) in yards per carry.
It’s certainly understandable if Holmes believes Goff—a player he was clearly confident in during the draft process and someone who had a pair of undeniably good season in the NFL—can put the extremely disappointing last two seasons behind him and get back to that back-to-back Pro Bowl level of play. But more importantly, there is almost no long-term risk in finding out. If he hits the ground running in Detroit, his cap hits of $25 million and $26 million in 2023 and 2024 will look like absolute steals. If Goff falls on his face, Detroit can cut him in 2023 with absolutely no cap ramifications going forward.
Jeff Risdon of LionsWire writes:
My focus is on the picks. The Lions now own five first-round picks in the next three drafts. That’s the only proper way to view the deal through a Lions prism. Detroit can control the 2021 draft and manipulate it via trades however they want. they have the firepower to go and acquire any pick they want, or any player who might be available for multiple first-round picks.
Goff is almost certain to be the Lions starter in 2021 and, if he turns out to be a flop, Detroit is stuck with him for the next two years.
This is Detroit though and the bar is set rather low.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
