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Having a MVP quarterback on your roster makes all the difference. When the line for Week 8’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs hit the board, KC was laying 3.5-points. Then, Patrick Mahomes limped off the field with a knee injury. The game came off and eventually re-opened at Green Bay -3.5. The Pack has its own former MVP and Aaron Rodgers is playing like he wants a third trophy to add to his collection. In what would have been a marquee matchup of MVP quarterbacks, instead we’re likely to see Matt Moore leading the Chiefs as Mahomes continues to recover.
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Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, October 27, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Opening NFL Odds: Green Bay -3.5, O/U 48
Packers at Chiefs TV Coverage: NBC
Odds Analysis
Early line releases are always a gamble for sportsbooks and this matchup is a good example of why. Prior to last week’s games we saw the Chiefs at -3.5, which seemed reasonable. One thing that always throws a wrench in the plan is an injury, especially when a key performer goes down. I think we can call reigning MVP Mahomes a key performer. The game was pulled after Mahomes exited the Denver game. It reopened at Green Bay -3.5. The line has bounced around since going as high as -5 before settling back down. With Mahomes likely not playing there was little movement on the over/under. The total dropped a half point after opening at 48.
Green Bay Packers
With Rodgers playing like the two-time MVP he is, the Packers are off to a blistering 6-1 start while going 5-2 ATS. They covered the 5.5-point line in a 42-24 win over the Raiders last week with Rodgers throwing five touchdown passes and running for another to account for all of Green Bay’s scores. During his two MVP seasons and countless other magnificent outings, Rodgers had never compiled a perfect passer rating in a game until facing Oakland’s defense.
With top target Davante Adams missing his third straight game, Rodgers was still able to connect on 25 of 31 for 429 yards and no picks. Receivers Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow and Allen Lazard started, but Rodgers spread the wealth with eight players having multiple receptions and five different players having a touchdown catch. That variety has allowed Green Bay to possess the eighth-best pass offense in the NFL with 274.1 yards per game.
We’ve seen some regression defensively, however, and that bodes well for the Chiefs. After allowing less than 12 points per game in their first three, the Pack has yielded at least 22 in each of the previous four with an average of 26 in those contests with the OVER cashing in four of the last five contests.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were collectively holding their breath when Mahomes was helped off the field during that Thursday night encounter with Denver. On a harmless enough play the MVP dislocated his kneecap, but it looks like a best-case scenario. There was no structural damage and Mahomes was back practicing with the team this week, albeit in a limited capacity. “We’re just going to see how he does and evaluate him from there,” Andy Reid said of his QB.
That statement doesn’t rule Mahomes out for Sunday night and backup Matt Moore said he hasn’t been told he’s starting, but are the Chiefs willing to take such a risk by playing the MVP? I thought so. Moore knocked off some rust against the Broncos in his first game since the 2017 season, completing 10 of 19 for 117 yards and a 57-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill.
We saw the entire team respond when the meal ticket limped off the field with a 10-6 lead. Moore did a nice job with the offense, but six drives ended with a punt. A defense that looked lost for most of the season scored a touchdown, recorded nine sacks, held Denver to just 205 yards and 1 of 13 on third down conversions in the 30-6 victory. Another effort like that will be needed to claim a victory over the NFC North leaders.
Bet Packers at Chiefs at BookMaker.eu
Teams have a way of rallying when a brother goes down and we saw that from the Chiefs at Denver. However, they aren’t playing the Broncos this week and a defense that is still suspect will be tested by Rodgers. KC still has its playmakers and could get another back with Sammy Watkins on the mend. That gives me a strong urge to look at going over the total while taking the points as Green Bay has a slight letdown without Mahomes throwing darts at them.
NFL Score Prediction: Kansas City 27, Green Bay 24
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