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Gambling911.com takes a look at the Marlins-Brewers Series hot trends for the period beginning June 4, 2019.
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About This Series
Seven of the last ten meetings have resulted in nine or more runs scored. Milwaukee has won seven.
Thursday's Odds
Milwaukee was at -162, over our picking threshold of -160. The total had been wobbling from 7.5 to 9, though many books had brought back down to 8.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Matchup
PITCHING MATCHUP: Marlins LH Caleb Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Freddy Peralta (2-2, 5.68)
Smith fell to 0-3 in his last five trips to the mound despite allowing just two runs for the fourth time in that stretch in a 5-2 setback at San Diego on Friday. The 27-year-old only permitted three hits versus the Padres, but two left the yard. The home run ball has been an issue for Smith, who has been taken deep eight times in his last seven outings and 10 times in 2019 after surrendering 10 homers all over last season.
Peralta, who enters into the rotation spot vacated by the injured Gio Gonzalez (arm fatigue), received his third no-decision in his last four trips to the mound on Friday after allowing two runs in 3 1/3 innings at Pittsburgh. The 23-year-old Dominican has struggled at Miller Park this season, posting a 1-2 mark with a 6.98 ERA while allowing the opposition to bat .289 against him. Peralta yielded three runs on as many hits in 3 2/3 innings of a start versus Miami, although the current Marlins' roster is batting 2-for-10 against him.
The OVER is 6-1 in Peralta’s last 7 home starts.
Tuesday's Odds
The total is 9 and the Brewers are a -184 favorite.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Matchup
PITCHING MATCHUP: Marlins RH Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31)
Lopez turned in a sterling six-inning start against San Francisco on Wednesday at Marlins Park, but his fortunes have swung wildly in the other direction when he takes the mound outside of the Miami city limits. The 23-year-old Venezuelan sports a 1-4 record with a bloated 8.26 ERA in five road starts as opposed to a 2-1 mark with a slim 1.84 ERA at home. Lopez has also been taken deep seven times while allowing the opposition to hit .303 against him in visitor's ballparks, as opposed to surrendering just one homer and a .176 batting average at home.
Anderson improved to 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in five starts since moving from the bullpen after yielding two runs on six hits in an 11-5 win at Pittsburgh on Thursday. The 31-year-old worked five innings for just the second time in that span and surrendered his first homer since an April 14 relief appearance against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Martin Prado is 4-for-12 in his career against Anderson, who owns a 3-2 mark with a 3.57 ERA in seven career starts versus Miami.
Tuesday's Outcome
In keeping with the OVER trend, the Marlins shut out Milwaukee 16-0, mostly a result of an 11 run inning.
Our Record June 4
2019 MLB Record: 15-7-1 (68.2%) - No Plays Over -160
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
