Home Team, Over Trend No Longer Hot With Twins-Rays Series

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

There were some excellent trends to consider in this Twins-Rays series over these next fews days.

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The home team was 8-2 and the OVER 14-2 in the last sixteen games played in Tampa heading into this weekend's series. Eight of the last ten meetings had gone OVER 8.

Both games played so far in this current series hit that number.

Sunday's Starting Pitching Matchups

PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (7-2, 2.16 ERA) vs. Rays LH Ryan Yarbrough (4-1, 5.53)

Odorizzi is unbeaten in his last eight trips to the mound, allowing zero runs in five of the last six, including last Sunday when he blanked the Chicago White Sox on one hit over 5 1/3 innings. The 29-year-old, who has 61 strikeouts and 20 walks this year, has permitted a total of six runs on 34 hits over 47 innings across the past eight starts. Odorizzi gave up six runs (five earned) over 4 1/3 innings in his only start against his former team last season.

Yarbrough was outstanding in only other start this season, limiting Cleveland to two runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings on May 23 with four strikeouts. The 27-year-old Old Dominion product came out of the bullpen in his second appearance since being recalled, tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings to earn the win against Toronto on Tuesday. Jonathan Schoop is 4-for-5 with two homers against Yarbrough, who gave up four runs over 5 1/3 innings versus Minnesota last year.

Thursday's Starting Pitching Matchup

PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins LH Martin Perez (7-1, 2.95 ERA) vs. Rays RH Charlie Morton (5-0, 2.54)

Perez started the year in the bullpen but he has thrived since joining the rotation, improving to 6-1 in his eight starts after permitting two runs on six hits over five innings at the Los Angeles Angels on May 23. He limited Seattle to one run over 6 2/3 innings in his previous turn, marking the fifth time he permitted one run or less and the sixth time that he worked at least six innings. Guillermo Heredia is 10-for-22 against Perez, who is winless (0-3) with a 4.91 ERA in five appearances (four starts) versus the Twins.

Morton rebounded from his worst start at Yankee Stadium with a stellar performance at Cleveland on Saturday, notching a season-high 10 strikeouts while allowing one run and three hits over six innings to earn the victory. He lasted a season-low four innings but escaped with a no-decision versus New York despite giving up four runs and a pair of homers that matched his total from his previous 10 starts. Morton, who last faced the Twins in 2017, is 34-10 over two-plus seasons since moving to the American League.

Minnesota has scored at least five runs in seven of the last ten overall.  They have allowed five or more runs in just three of their last ten.

Tampa Bay has kept opponents to 3 or fewer runs in their last ten.


Morton remained unbeaten with his new team Thursday night, benefiting from its biggest offensive outburst of the season in a 14-3 victory over the major league-best Minnesota Twins.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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