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Even in these strange political times we never expected to see this—the President of the United States and his top advisors retweeting his betting odds. We’ll get to that part of the story in a moment but first a bit of context. Last week, an article in Forbes noted that leading offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag was seeing a flood of action on Trump to win the 2020 Presidential Election despite his anemic polling numbers. The article written by Dave Caldwell noted that BetOnline.ag has continued to move their odds in response to the money being bet on the incumbent.
The Forbes article featured several revealing observations from BetOnline.ag sportsbook brand manager Dave Mason revealed that his book has a ‘huge exposure’ on Trump and that he was the only 2020 Presidential betting interest with a ‘red number’. This means that should any other candidate win BetOnline would turn a profit but a Trump victory would have them ‘in the red’. Trump’s odds to be reelected had been in the 5/2 (+250) range for much of last year but dropped to 2/1 (+200) in January and with the exception of a slight short term uptick stayed there until this Summer when they’ve dropped to 7/4 (+175), then 7/5 (+140) and finally 13/10 (+130). From that point they’ve drifted slightly and now stand at 3/2 (+150).
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The book offered odds on 45 other betting interests but that Trump has taken more action than all other candidates combined. The closest Democratic challenger listed is California Senator Kamala Harris at 10/1 followed by Bernie Sanders at 14/1. Mason noted that Trump has twelve times as many wagers on him than the top two Democratic candidates combined and that his poll numbers are a non-factor for bettors:
“His poll numbers really don’t slow people from betting on him,” Mason said. “So, lowering the number is more about managing risk. We’ve learned that it doesn’t matter what he does, tweet, who he offends, et cetera. Bettors are still pounding him at plus money.”
Trump’s strong position in the 2020 betting market has not been lost on those within his administration including White House Social Media Director Dan Scavino, Jr. Scavino sent out a Tweet linking to a story on Trump’s odds at BetOnline.ag in the Washington Examiner:
The Trump administration and his other political advisors might not have a full understanding of what these betting odds mean. They are aware of one thing, however—the betting public is giving him a much stronger chance of reelection in 2020 than the mainstream media in the United States.
