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You can bet the Tigers-Blue Jays series July 7 thru 10 where the OVER must be given serious consideration each game.
The OVER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these two clubs. Three of the last four games played in Toronto have resulted in 10 or more runs. That would be OVER the Game 1 total of 9.5.
The OVER is 7-3 in the Tigers last 10 overall and 7-1 in Justin Verlander’s last eight starts. He is pitching for Detroit in Game One.
Verlander gave up two runs (one earned) in seven innings but had given up eight runs in his previous game against Cleveland. Two of his last four starts have ultimately finished with double digit runs being scored.
Verlander faced Toronto once last season on July 5 at home and surrendered home runs to Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak while allowing seven runs in five frames.
Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (1-0, 5.40) is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in three career starts against Detroit.
Friday’s game features A.J. Happ pitching for Toronto and having allowed 21 for 78 hits against the current Detroit lineup including 12 extra base hits and four home runs.
Happ was superior against the Indians on Sunday, allowing just one run. Five of the last six games in which he has started have resulted in 11 runs or more (a lot more in the case of those other four games).
There is a reason why the total is set so high at 10 here.
Mike Pelfrey for Detroit has allowed 4 or more runs in four of his last six starts while the games have gone 12 or more runs in three of the last four in which he has started.
Palfrey just had his fourth quality start of the season in 17 trips to the mound, shaving his ERA back down to 4.78. We can’t help but think he won’t be quite as sharp on Friday.
Toronto had scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games. Detroit has done so in six of their last ten games. Do the math and, while we feel the Game Two total is a little high at 10, it’s still worth taking.
Again, take the OVER 10 FRIDAY JULY 8 for this series.
Saturday features a start by Aaron Sanchez on the Detroit side and he’s 9-1 with six runs permitted in his last 28 innings pitched. Unless we want to rely on opposing pitcher Matt Boyd to come completely unraveled, expect a high total and little value here.
Be careful Sunday as well, Anibal Sanchez is 23 for 106 against the current Blue Jays line up, having allowed a mere two home runs over that time. He’s coming off a bad loss and has much to prove here against a team he has performed favorably against in the past. R.A. Dickey has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts but is coming off a win.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com.
