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Carrie Stroup here with your Rams vs. Packers spread for Week 5 of the 2015 NFL season. Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -9, Total: 46
ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-0)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to stay undefeated on Sunday when they entertain the Rams at Lambeau Field.
St. Louis (2-2 SU and ATS) enters this week hot on the heels of edging out the NFC West-leading Cardinals 24-22 in the closest game of Week 4, while Green Bay (4-0 SU and ATS) stayed unbeaten on the year by knocking off the hapless 49ers 17-3. The Rams hold a razor-thin edge in the all-time series between the teams (46-45-2), but the Packers have had the advantage in recent years, winning seven of the past 10 meetings.
The matchup trends favor Green Bay, which is 8-1 ATS against mistake-prone teams (60+ penalty YPG) and 7-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the past three years, while St. Louis is a dismal 1-10 ATS in road games versus very good offensive teams (27+ PPG) since 1992. The Rams have a couple of strong coaching trends though, as Jeff Fisher is 13-4 ATS versus good offenses (5.65+ yards per play) with his current team, and 50-31 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 in his coaching career.
The Rams will be without LB Alec Ogletree (ankle), who suffered what may be a season-ending fracture against the Cardinals. RB Chase Reynolds (knee), DE Eugene Sims (knee), and S Maurice Alexander (groin) are all questionable for Sunday. Packers WR Davante Adams (ankle) is doubtful for Week 5, after missing last week’s game and all but three plays of Week 3. The Green Bay defense will be closely watching S Morgan Burnett (calf), CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring), and LB Jake Ryan (hamstring), who are all questionable.
The biggest spark generated by St. Louis this season may well be the pregame pyrotechnics that set the field ablaze in Week 3. The Rams’ offense, led by QB Nick Foles, has struggled to gain traction, scoring just 18.5 PPG (25th out of 32), and advancing the ball for just 287.8 YPG and 55 first downs – both league worsts. To its credit, St. Louis has protected the ball, averaging just one turnover per game, and rookie RB Todd Gurley broke out in Week 4, rushing for 146 yards on just 19 carries while adding another 15 yards on two catches.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ defense has performed marginally better, though in two road games they have given up an average of 23.0 PPG and 410 YPG. St. Louis may feel the loss of Ogletree, who prior to his injury led the team in tackles and assisted tackles, and contributed two sacks. The passing defense also needs to improve after allowing a 76% completion rate and 235 passing YPG to opposing quarterbacks.
On special teams, WR Tavon Austin has been thrilling to watch field punt returns, averaging a league-leading 22.6 yards per return, including a 75-yard touchdown.
Through four games, Green Bay has looked indomitable, averaging 28.3 PPG. Superstar QB Aaron Rodgers continues to be among the best in the game, leading the league in passer rating (125.9) and passing TD (11), without throwing a single interception in his 123 attempts. Rodgers has not thrown a pick in front of his home fans in an unbelievable 486 consecutive throws, tossing 43 TD in that span.
The season-long loss of WR Jordy Nelson has been tempered by the return of veteran WR James Jones, who has received the second-highest amount of targets (21) from Rodgers, and is tied for the team lead with WR Randall Cobb with four touchdowns apiece.
The Packers’ defense has proved nearly as formidable as their offense, sacking opposing quarterbacks 17 times and forcing five turnovers while only allowing opponents 17.8 PPG. But the run-stop unit is giving up 115 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.8 yards per carry, and the Rams will surely try to run the ball after racking up 164 yards on 6.3 YPC last week.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
