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BetDSI.com has your 2015 NCAA Tournament South Region odds to win.
The Duke Blue Devils are going to get most of the publicity as the perceived favorite in this region. They are coached by Mike Krzyzewski, so that’s naturally going to give them something of an edge. Yet, Duke has a point of weakness which can be exploited. First, let’s look at the Blue Devils’ strengths. Duke was a top-10 team in shooting percentage and two-point field goal percentage, top 50 in three-point percentage.
Coach K’s crew was also a top-10 team in points scored per possession. The Blue Devils ended the conference tournaments in the top 40 of the nation in assists per game. This was a very impressive offense, one which hummed through much of the ACC regular season. On defense, it was a different story for Duke.
The Blue Devils finished outside the top 75 in points allowed per possession, hovering just inside the top 100. This team ended up outside the top 130 in field goal defense, outside the top 120 in two-point field goal defense, and in the top 75 of teams regarding rebounding percentage, yet not particularly close to the top 25. There’s so much Duke could work on as far as defense is concerned, and the teams in this region will test the Devils.
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Gonzaga, the number two seed, has an offense which could topple Duke and its wobbly defense. The Zags ended the regular season in the top 10 in shooting, two-point percentage, three-point percentage, and points scored per possession. Yes, they dominated all four of those statistics. The criticism will be that the Bulldogs did all that in the weaker West Coast Conference. There is a lot of truth to that criticism, but on the other hand, it’s not as though Gonzaga finished outside the top 10 in any of them. Given that there are 351 Division I teams, being in the top 10 in four separate offensive categories remains remarkable, no matter the opposition.
Sleepers/Longshots
There’s a chance that Iowa State comes through this region. The Cyclones have come back from double-digit deficits in each of their last five games. That’s very hard to do. Iowa State simply doesn’t give up, and coach Fred Hoiberg trusts his players, giving them the freedom to play without timeouts in the closing minutes of games. Iowa State’s ability to freelance on offense could cause Duke’s defense all kinds of concerns. That’s something the Cyclones have to like if they can get past Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
