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Gambling911.com has your FREE Baseball picks for August 4. Sadly, we fell for that sucker bet on the OVER 6.5 with Pittsburgh and San Francisco last night. Let’s look for some wins today.
Milwaukee/Cincinnati UNDER 8.5 – While it hasn’t been the case in 3 of the last 4 games, 6 consecutive games before that have gone UNDER the current total in this series.
The UNDER is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Wily Peralta's last 9 starts overall even though he pitched horribly against Cincinnati his last time up.
Bronson Arroyo is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts and is 14-9 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.237.
Arroyo is 6-2 with a 2.96 ERA - including 10 quality starts – over his last 11 outings at Great American Ball Park.
Norichika Aoki is 5-for-22 with a home run against Arroyo.
Milwaukee closer Jim Henderson has made 14 consecutive scoreless appearances and lowered his ERA to 1.71.
With Arroyo starting this season, Cincinnati has allowed more than 4 runs twice since June 25 (out of ten games started). In all of his home starts of the season, the Reds have allowed more than 4 runs just three times (two of those games against St. Louis and another against Atlanta).
With Peralta starting this season, Milwaukee has allowed more than 4 runs four times over that same period (out of ten games started).
Pittsburgh -127 vs. San Francisco - Aside from a horrendous start in Colorado a few weeks back, Francisco Liriano (14-5, 2.53 ERA) has been outstanding. In five of his last six starts he blanked the opposition three times while allowing a single run twice and yielding fewer than five hits over at least seven innings in all five outings.
Pittsburgh has been playing especially well versus San Francisco this season, thus providing Liriano a perfect opportunity to continue his stellar performance. He is 1-0 when starting against San Francisco with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.833.
Liriano has allowed only five home runs in 121 innings this season, the fewest among major-league starters.
Tim Lincecum is 1-3 when starting against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.297.
Lincecum lost each of his previous two starts, surrendering a total of 11 runs and 16 hits in 11 innings. Previous to this outing he only allowed 3 runs in 22 innings, however, he recorded a single victory over that time period.
San Francisco has scored three runs or fewer in four of its last five games.
On paper, this looks like it will be a low scoring game but the total is too low at 6.5 and Lincecum has scared us over his last few starts.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
