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Joe Calzaghe vs. Roy Jones Jr.: It's All Going to be Mental, and the sports chic at Sports Interaction has Calzaghe winning the Light Heavyweight Title as a -303 favorite. What follows is Sarah Payland's prediction and analysis on Calzaghe vs. Jones, Jr.
Things you would have never thought you'd hear people say just a handful of years ago: Joe Calzaghe can beat Roy Jones Jr. by beating him mentally.
Once known not only as one of the most physically domineering fighters of his era, Roy Jones Junior's detached personality made him one of the mentally toughest. But that hasn't seemed the case in his last string of fights. His losses to Tarver and Johnson and unconvincing wins over Prince Badi Ajamu and Anthony Hanshaw had the once revered champion looking like a tired boxer who should hang up the gloves and open a gym.
Calzaghe, on the other hand, has been trending upward and onward. You wouldn't call him the star of any weight division, but his solid performance is reflective of a fighter who's here to stay. And unlike Jones, who just looks tired of being in the ring and the show that surrounds it, Calzaghe is just starting to enjoy more widespread fame and the excitement that comes with it.
If you look simply at the paper facts, the fight looks even in many ways. Both fighters possess power and speed, though Calzaghe is by far the more prolific hitter. At 36, Calzaghe is three years younger than Jones' 39 years, which may play more of a physical difference than it at first appears. Though both fighters have moved around to make weight for this fight, neither is likely to be seriously impacted by it. Which is why the difference, most likely, will be mental. And a mental advantage always favors the more enthusiastic fighter. From all appearances, that would be Calzaghe.
Sports Interaction has Calzaghe priced at 1.33 and Jones at 3.40. But the possibility is that even is Calzaghe hasn't taken Jones down early (and Jones losses by knock out from Tarver prove it's possible), he will have won. Looking at Jones previous fights, the spark that once powered his eyes during a fight is gone. This is business now, or perhaps it's holding on to something for the sake of holding on. And now that Jones knows he can lose, and lose big, the idea is lodged in his head. If Calzaghe can land hard and fast early, he can bring that doubt to the forefront of Jones mind. Jones hasn't shown a strong ability to throw power throughout the distance of a twelve rounder or to close out fights in these later stages of his career, and most of that is mental breakage. If a smart and fast Calzaghe can dominate the early rounds, Jones won't be able to come back. We like Calzaghe in this fight, though the boxing sentimentalist always wishes for a return to form from the charismatic and captivating Jones.
The two fighters take to the ring in Madison Square Garden this Saturday. The question is, will Roy Jones Jr. show up mentally, or not?
Sports Interaction - Canada's first online sportsbook is offering a 15 percent cash bonus when you open an online betting account today. Why not start with the Joe Calzaghe vs. Roy Jones Jr. fight.
Sarah Payland, Gambling911.com
