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Betting on the New England Patriots to win the 2012 Super Bowl has some value at 3/1 but NFC East Division prices for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are something that should be reviewed carefully. And the Buffalo Bills are worth betting in at least one category.
The Patriots would require a $23 bet just to win $10 in the AFC East Division (the initial $23 bet is returned should they win). Because New England is expected to be such a dominant team this year and favored to win the 2012 Super Bowl, the 1/2 odds may seem like a bargain to some, though we at Gambling911.com believe these odds to be a poor value. The Jets and even the long shot Dolphins could upset this division.
The oddsmakers have New England pegged to win only 11.5 regular season games (we say ONLY because this is, after all, the New England Patriots).
New England Patriots Futures Betting Value Index:
2012 Super Bowl – Good
AFC East Division – Poor
Regular Season Wins OVER 11.5 – Very Good
The Jets will enter the 2011 season pretty unchanged over the past two seasons. Whether that’s enough to get them over the hump remains to be seen. It should be enough to get them over 10 regular season wins though. It should be noted that a few of the veterans have departed during the offseason including Damien Woody and Tony Richardson. Shaun Ellis and Jayson Taylor’s departures on defense may leave the biggest hole to fill. Depth is a concern, especially with the NFL lockout cutting into crucial training camps.
The schedule suggests New York can win at least 10 regular season games, which just happens to be their OVER/UNDER with the regular season win totals betting. Oddsmakers have them at -155 UNDER.
In the end, there’s not much worth betting when it comes to Jets futures unless it’s for a small amount.
Futures Betting Value Index:
New York Jets to win the 2012 Super Bowl 10/1 – Fair
New York Jets to win the AFC East +165 – Fair
New York Jets OVER/UNDER 10 regular season wins – Poor
This season we believe the Dolphins defense will be able to win games, Chad Henne is a decent enough quarterback and Reggie Bush will have an impact. There is enough talent in Miami that they should end the regular season above .500. Right?
Well, the schedule may prevent this from happening unless the Dolphins really decide to step things up two or three notches.
Futures Betting Value Index:
Miami Dolphins odds to win the 2012 Super Bowl 80/1 – Fair
Odds to win the AFC East Division 10/1 – Fair
Odds to win OVER 7.5 regular season games – Fair
And lastly, the Bills shouldn’t just be tossed to the side in this division. They actually have the best betting value especially when it comes to the regular season win totals.
Gambling911.com sees 7 wins a good possibility. But with the oddsmakers listing the Bills OVER/UNDER at 5.5 -125, the value suddenly becomes VERY GOOD.
Also, with the Bills promising a payout of $3500 for every $100 bet if they are to win the AFC East Division this year, we can’t help but want to place a small bet down…..just in case.
Futures Betting Value Index:
Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East 35/1 odds – Fair
Buffalo Bills to win OVER 5.5 regular season games – Very Good
Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
