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Although this game isn’t particularly important on any large scale, both teams could really use this win. Unfortunately, the NBA doesn’t allow ties, so the Heat look decent to snag one at home against the Wizards. Despite losing the last matchup 94-84 in Miami early last season, the Heat have won seven of the past eight meetings against Washington. Also, the Wizards are 0-7 on the road this year.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS (5-10) at MIAMI HEAT (9-8)
Sportsbook.com is using Miami -11.5 & 198
After sitting out four games in a row with a sprained foot, John Wall had an impressive 36-minute debut last Tuesday against the 76ers, where he dropped 25 points and dished out six assists. This was Washington's only win in the past four games. Wall is listed as questionable against Heat and didn’t play in the one-point loss to Orlando on Saturday, where the Wizards shot a decent 45.0 FG Pct. and had only 12 turnovers. Gilbert Arenas had a season-high 31 points, despite shooting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the floor, and is shooting the same 39.1% FG for the season.
The Heat are hoping their players-only meeting can rejuvenate some life into the team after losing 106-95 in Dallas last Saturday -- their fourth loss in the past five games. Although Miami was outscored 48-26 in the paint, the Big Three of Wade, Bosh, and James each scored more than 20 points. The road loss could be the spark that ignites the Heat as they return to the American Airlines Arena where they are 7-3 SU and outscoring opponents by a double-digit margin.
Sportsbook.com bettors still have faith in the recently slumping Heat, as 79% are backing Miami at the big number
Although Miami will likely win the game, these two trends show that Washington should cover the spread:
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season. (32-9 since 1996.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%). (38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*).
