QB Starter-to-Backup Spread Differential Changes at Midway Point of NFL Season

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Nov/07/2024

You may have seen the spread values of starting quarterbacks before.

BetOnline.ag oddsmakers have decided to take a different approach this year. Below is a list that identifies the value gap between the starter and the backup for each team.

Before Week 2 of the NFL season, I sent out this note below:

An example is this weekend, where the look-ahead line (posted before Week 1) for the Colts-Packers game in Week 2 was Green Bay -4. Now with Love out and Malik Willis starting, Green Bay is a 2.5-point underdog.

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So, Jordan Love isn’t necessarily worth 6.5 points, but the difference between starting Love and Willis is 6.5 points.

In some instances, such as the Panthers, Giants and Titans, starting the backup would be advantageous to those teams' pointspread.

For example, the Giants are currently 2-point underdogs to Washington in Week 2. If Drew Lock were starting instead of Daniel Jones, New York would be just a 1-point underdog.

The teams are listed below in order of which team is hurt the most in the eyes of the oddsmakers by not having the starter in the game.

The oddsmakers have since updated this chart based on each starter and backup (when applicable) have played.

Here are some notes from the initial list:

  1. The first spread was the opening spread difference. If there’s a change, it’s in parenthesis and to the right of the opening spread.
    1. For example the difference between Lamar Jackson and Josh Johnson was -7.5. It has since moved to -9.
  2. Some spreads got longer based on the QB play:
    1. Jayden Daniels
    2. Sam Darnold
    3. Bo Nix
    4. Baker Mayfield
  3. Some spreads got longer based on how poor the backups have been:
    1. Tua Tagovailoa
    2. Derek Carr
  4. Some spreads got shorter based on poor play:
    1. Deshaun Watson
    2. Trevor Lawrence
    3. Will Levis
  5. Some spreads got longer based on good back-up play:
    1. Jordan Love
    2. Justin Fields

 

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson               -7.5  (-9) 

Josh Johnson

 

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen                       -7 (-8)

Mitchell Trubisky

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes            -7.5

Carson Wentz

 

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford            -5.5 (-6.5)

Stetson Bennett

 

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels               -1.5 (-6.5)

Marcus Mariota

 

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud                      -5.5 (-6)

Davis Mills

 

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff                       -5 (-6)

Hendon Hooker

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert                 -5 (-6)

Easton Stick

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts                      -5 (-6)

Kenny Pickett

 

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa               -3.5 (-5.5)

Skylar Thompson

 

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray                   -5

Clayton Tune

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow                      -4 (-5)

Jake Browning

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield                -3.5 (-5)

Kyle Trask

 

Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins                   -4.5

Michael Penix Jr.

 

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott                   -4.5

Cooper Rush

 

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love                    -6.5 (-4.5)

Malik Willis

 

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold                   -1 (-4.5)

Nick Mullens

 

New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr                      -3.5 (-4.5)

Spencer Rattler (was Jake Haener)

 

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy                    -4.5

Brandon Allen

 

Denver Broncos

Bo Nix                             0 (-3)

Jarrett Stidham

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence            -4 (-3)

Mac Jones

 

New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers               -3.5 (-3)

Tyrod Taylor

 

Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams               -2.5

Tyson Bagent

 

Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith                     -2.5

Sam Howell

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Gardner Minshew           0

Aiden O'Connell

 

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young                   +1.5 (+.5)

Andy Dalton     

 

New York Giants

Daniel Jones                   +1

Drew Lock        

 

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson       -1 (+2)

Joe Flacco

 

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson            -0.5 (+2.5)

Jameis Winston              

 

New England Patriots

Jacoby Brissett               -0.5 (+2.5)

Drake Maye

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin Fields                    0 (+2.5)

Russell Wilson               

 

Tennessee Titans

Will Levis                         +0.5 (+2.5)

Mason Rudolph

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