Importance of NFL Point Spreads in Betting Strategy

Money Moves

NFL point spreads are the lifeblood of professional football wagering. It’s been that way forever and what makes the game more popular than any other. It’s not difficult to see that the bulk of betting revolves around “who’s the favorite,”  “who’s the underdog?” and “what’s the spread?”

It’s a fluid number depending on which side is getting the bulk of the support, as the house tries to do its best to get close to an equal amount of the action on both sides. That’s when the “vig,” or fee charged to the gambler to make the bet, comes in and, with equal wagering, guarantees a profit to the bookie/house/casino/gambling site.

There’s also a total on the game, as in the total number of points scored in the game. There’s under/over available, along with corresponding odds.

Here’s a look at the inner workings of point spreads in the NFL…  

Why Are Point Spreads Important in Sports Betting?

Betting on NFL games continues to increase in popularity, due in large part to its legalization and acceptance. As the NFL currently has a 17-game schedule (plus preseason and the playoffs), there is certainly sufficient opportunity to find a winner.

What the spread does is even the playing field in a game, providing a blueprint of the favorite, the underdog, and the number. Here’s a hypothetical example using the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.

Suppose the line (which, again, is fluid) finds the Cowboys favored by seven. What this means is those who wager on Dallas need the Boys to win by more than seven, while those wagering on New York need the Giants to either win the game or lose by less than seven.

Should the outcome land on seven, that’s what’s known as a “push,” or a refunded bet.

Note that games often have point spreads with half-point odds (examples include 3½, 6½, or 7½), so no “pushes” on these games.       

How Accurate Is the Point Spread in the NFL?

NFL betting tips are hard to come by as the point spreads have been known to be nauseatingly accurate. You wouldn’t think they’d be as precise as they are, but that’s why the house is smart.

It’s not uncommon to find Team A, favored by a field goal, winning by that exact margin. There’s a whole lot of mathematical and statistical data going into the calculation of each spread, so no picking numbers out of a hat.

That doesn’t mean some spreads aren’t off, sometimes way off, but it is generally falling within a “margin of error.”

How Does the Point Spread Work in NFL Betting?

NFL odds and spreads are easy to decipher, but selecting the winner is not so much. Such is the ongoing challenge of wagering on football.

Each of the games has a favorite, an underdog, and a spread. As was mentioned, what a spread does is level the playing field by adding (underdog) or subtracting (favorite) points to a team’s total in a particular game.

Bettors then choose sides accordingly, with the favored team having to win by more than that preset number, while underdogs have to either win outright or lose by less than that number.

As an aside, there are rare games with no favorite/underdog. These are known as “pick-’em” games, where the bettor just needs to find a winner as no “spread points” are involved.

How to Beat NFL Point Spread?

That is the age-old question. If any of us were able to religiously beat the NFL point spreads when betting on football, we wouldn’t have to work. However, with so many games that are played. there are invariably some “bad lines” out there.

This is defined by lines that are not close to the actual outcome of a particular game. It is the job of the bettor to unearth such “improper lines” and hopefully do something with them.

Any Final Thoughts?

We can’t fathom the amount of money wagering on pro football each season. It dwarfs all other sports Thus, any gambler, serious or casual, owes it to him/herself to put in work before making a bet. The latest trends, news, and injury reports are a good place to start.