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Miami heads to LA to take on the Rams in a "must win" game to have even the slightest chance of making the post season.
Dolphins @ Rams
Opening Line - The Rams opened as a -1.5 favorite
Line Trend - This one has moved from 1.5 to -3 then back down to -2.5.
Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of 3.39, which suggests a slight underlay.
Action Trend – Action is 65% on the Rams.
Comparables
- New York Giants +3 to +1.5 Las Vegas (Las Vegas 2.48 On The Money to 1 point Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
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New Orleans +1.5 to +2.5 Arizona (home favorite Arizona covers and wins by 8) Arizona 3.12 Underlay 1.5 to On the Money - Home favorite covers.
From Winners and Whiners:
Tagovailoa is 3-9 ATS in night games in his career including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as an underdog. When he faces a team with a winning percentage of 50% or above on the road in night games, he is 4-11 SU and has lost eight consecutive games in that spot. Miami is also 1-4 SU and ATS in its next game after facing Buffalo under HC Mike McDaniel, failing to cover the spread by over nine points per game.
The public loves Los Angeles in this game, and while sharp money has moved the line in Miami's direction, I'm comfortable siding with the home team. As close as the Dolphins played the Bills last week, they benefitted from some questionable calls and barely covered. That close call may say more about Buffalo right now than it does about the Fins. While that effort has some wondering if Miami is a team on the rise, I just don't see it.
I expect Stafford to play better after his performance in LA's last game, taking advantage of a Dolphins team that doesn't generate pressure or force turnovers. With both of its top receiving threats back, I think this Rams team is more explosive than oddsmakers seem to believe, and they have been a great gamble at SoFi, as well (7-1 SU in their last eight home games).
Miami ranks in the bottom-seven in expected record, point differential and Net EPA — Los Angeles is the side to bet on Monday night!
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