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CJ Stroud total passing yards prop bet vs. the LA Chargers came in with an Over/Under of 229.5.
Stroud completed 6-of-6 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in Houston’s Week 18, 23-14 win over the Titans.
Prior to that he completed 17-of-31 passes for 185 yards and an interception in the Texans’ 31-2, Week 17 loss to the Ravens.
NBC Edge wrote of his most recent performance:
"He was pulled after leading a touchdown drive on the first series. The Texans largely accomplished the offense-only “get your groove back” Week 18 sidequest by rolling up 6.4 yards per play. They’re currently awaiting results from the Chargers game to see who they’ll play in (let’s not kid ourselves) the 3:30 ET game on Saturday. Stroud will be a, uh, let’s say contrarian playoff best ball pick given how Houston’s pass offense has trended down throughout the season. Be it the Steelers or the Chargers, Stroud will have to overcome a lot to get the Texans back into the divisional round."
Stroud is the seventh player in NFL history with at least 3,500 yards passing and 20 TD passes in each of his first two seasons. He threw three touchdown passes without an interception in two playoff games last season.
He has struggled without two of his key receivers, averaging just 210 passing yards in his last five games of the season.
Line Analysis and Action
There is an overlay here as Sagarin gives us a number of Chargers 0.29 with the line set at Chargers -3. There has been an occasional shift to 2.5. 65 percent of the spread action was on LA.
Comparisons
- Ravens -3 to -2.5 Chargers (Ravens 1.46 Overlay) Action 65% Ravens.
- Buffalo -2.5 Kansas City (road favorite Buffalo covers with 4-point win) Buffalo 0.1 Overlay 1.5 to 2.5.
- Colorado -2.5/-3 Kansas (Colorado 0.94 Overlay) 65% action on Colorado.
- Alabama -3/-2.5 LSU (Alabama 1.63 Overlay) - Balanced Action.
- Texas A&M -3/2.5 South Carolina (Balanced Action) (Texas A&M 1.94 slight overlay).
Before You Bet This Game
- The Chargers are seeking their first playoff win since the 2018 season.
- This is their sixth straight road playoff game. They are 2-3 in that span.
- Chargers are 6-10 all time in road playoff games.
- LA has won three consecutive games coming into the post season.
- Houston got off to a nice 5-1 start to the season but it's been pretty ugly since then, going 5-6.
- Houston has struggled to run the ball and Stroud has been inconsistent .
- The Texans defense has been pretty solid.
- The Chargers are playing their third straight road contest, traveling from New England to Las Vegas and Houston. In the last 19 seasons, playoff teams in this situation are just 11-27 SU (29%) (The Line)
Our Play
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