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I would say that predicting Rookie of the Year Award winners in MLB is extremely difficult.
Just looking back at the last five years from the opening odds at BetOnline.ag, only 30% of the pre-season favorites won the award as shown in the chart below.
|
Year |
AL Favorite |
AL Winner |
NL Favorite |
NL Winner |
|
2024 |
Evan Carter/Wyatt Langford |
Luis Gil |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
Paul Skenes |
|
2023 |
Gunnar Henderson |
Gunnar Henderson |
Corbin Carroll |
Corbin Carroll |
|
2022 |
Bobby Witt Jr. |
Julio Rodriguez |
Oneil Cruz |
Michael Harris II |
|
2021 |
Randy Arozarena |
Randy Arozarena |
Ke'Bryan Hayes |
Jonathan India |
|
2020 |
Michael Kopech |
Kyle Lewis |
Gavin Lux |
Devin Williams |
This years pre-season favorites would lead many to think that the rich got richer. The two World Series teams (NYY and LAD) from 2024 have the respective Rookie of the Year favorites in Jason Dominguez and Roki Sasaki.
|
2025 Rookie of the Year AL |
|||
|
Jasson Dominguez |
3/1 |
||
|
Roman Anthony |
11/2 |
(+550) |
|
|
Kristian Campbell |
7/1 |
||
|
Jacob Wilson |
8/1 |
||
|
Jackson Jobe |
9/1 |
||
|
Will Wagner |
12/1 |
||
|
Coby Mayo |
12/1 |
||
|
Jace Jung |
18/1 |
||
|
Kumar Rocker |
18/1 |
||
|
Tomoyuki Sugano |
20/1 |
||
|
Colson Montgomery |
25/1 |
||
|
Trey Sweeney |
33/1 |
||
|
Chase Delauter |
33/1 |
||
|
Zebby Matthews |
40/1 |
||
|
Shay Whitcomb |
40/1 |
||
|
Kyle Teel |
40/1 |
||
|
Edgar Quero |
40/1 |
||
|
Caden Dana |
50/1 |
||
|
Carson Williams |
55/1 |
||
|
Travis Bazzana |
66/1 |
||
|
Jac Caglianone |
66/1 |
||
|
2025 Rookie of the Year NL |
|||
|
Roki Sasaki |
7/4 |
(+175) |
|
|
Dylan Crews |
13/4 |
(+325) |
|
|
Matt Shaw |
4/1 |
||
|
Bubba Chandler |
9/1 |
||
|
Jordan Lawlar |
12/1 |
||
|
Tirso Ornelas |
18/1 |
||
|
Thomas Saggese |
25/1 |
||
|
Hyeseong Kim |
25/1 |
||
|
Agustin Ramirez |
28/1 |
||
|
Rhett Lowder |
33/1 |
||
|
Ronny Mauricio |
33/1 |
||
|
Luisangel Acuna |
40/1 |
||
|
Andrew Painter |
40/1 |
||
|
Grant Mccray |
66/1 |
||
|
Matt Mervis |
66/1 |
||
|
Hurston Waldrep |
66/1 |
||
|
Brady House |
66/1 |
||
