MLB Betting Analysis - July 14, 2025 (Record Heading Into All Star Break)

Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors. Our record appears below as we head into the All Star Break. 

All Star Break Home Run Derby Odds

Home Run Derby Winner Odds

Total Home Runs Recorded by Derby Winner

Over/Under 53½

Home Run Derby Winning League

American League -140 (5/7)

National League +100 (1/1)

July 13 Games

66% of the money was coming in on Tampa Bay as the Rays finish off their series in Boston Sunday afternoon. Top cappers are all over the Red Sox here. 

Boston has won nine straight and are winners of 11 of their last 12 overall. 

Tampa Bay Rays career statistics vs. Brayan Bello are 33-for-97 with 15 RBIs but just two home runs. Bello went the distance, striking out 10, as the Red Sox trounced the Rockies 10-2 on Tuesday.

Boston Red Sox career statistics vs. Ryan Pepiot are 19 for 66 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. Trevor Story is 5-for-8 against him. Pepiot did a nice job in a no-decision against the Tigers on Tuesday evening, allowing just two runs on three hits over six strong innings and did have a nice win in his prior start. 

Take The Red Sox Here -115

July 12 Games

Detroit was seeing greater than 80% of the betting action yet the books brought this line down 10 points from Tigers -135 to -125, however, we should note that this one did open around the -125 mark. 

The Tigers have hit well against Seattle starter George Kirby, going 17-for-58. Just be mindful that Jake Rogers has two of the four home runs against Kirby and has not had the best season thus far (.177 with one home run). Take him out of the equation and Kirby's performance improves. Colt Keith is 3-for-6 against him but with no RBIs. 

Seattle Mariners career statistics vs. Casey Mize are .212 with 5 RBIs. Mize has been on fire of late. He blanked the Guardians for seven innings Saturday to earn his ninth win as the Tigers prevailed 1-0. 

Top cappers are all over the Tigers in this one. 

July 11 Games

Cappers were all over the Rangers this day with the season split in the last four meetings between these two clubs.

Texas Rangers career statistics vs. Lance McCullers Jr. are 16 for 53 (.301)

Houston Astros career statistics vs. Jack Leiter have just three hits in nineteen at bats.

Go with the Rangers +108 here

Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (27-17-2)

• July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
• July 12 - No Picks Today
• July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN) 
• July 10 - No Picks Today 
• July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
• July 8 - No Picks Today
• July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
• July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
• July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
• July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
• July 3 - No Picks Today
• July 2 - No Picks Today 
• July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
• June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
• June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
• June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
• June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
• June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
• June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
• June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
• June 17 - No Picks Today
• June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
• June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
• June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
• June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
• June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
• June 12 - No Picks Today
• June 11 - No Picks Today
• June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
• June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
• June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
• June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
• June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
• June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
• May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
• May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
• May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
• May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
• May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
• May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
• May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
• May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
• April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
• April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
• April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
• April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
• April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com