MLB Betting Analysis - August 5 2025

Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Tuesday August 5, 2025.

August 5, 2025 

Seven of the last ten in this series have gone Over the current total of 8.5.  The A's have scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games overall. 

Washington has permitted seven or more runs in their last five games overall. 

The public overwhelmingly loves the Over while the handicappers consensus favors the Athletics. 

There there is this from The Action Network:

These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters increasing bullpen volatility.

Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals.

This creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular season games.

We are on the Athletics +112 and the Over 8.5 here

The Verdict 

Take the Over 8.5 here as well as the Athletics +113

August 4, 2025

San Diego Padres career statistics vs. Brandon Pfaadt are .310 with 14 RBIs.  Luis Arraez is 10 of 19 against him. 

Pfaadt was knocked around in Tuesday night’s loss to the Tigers, giving up seven runs on 11 hits over his 4 2/3 innings of work.

Pfaadt currently ranks below the 3rd percentile amongst all MLB pitchers in exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.

Action was 75% or greater on the Diamondbacks with the line on San Diego moving from -133 to -125 with recreational books we follow hanging on this number as well. 

San Diego -125 is the play here

August 3, 2025

There are no significant line moves or action that suggests either side has an edge here.  Much of the action is balanced with New York sitting on the -111. 

ESPN had this to offer in regard to avoiding New York in this game: 

After allowing just one earned run in six innings in his last effort, Edward Cabrera is down to a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last 14 starts, spanning 75 1/3 innings. He punched out 76 with just two walks over that stretch. The Miami Marlins host the New York Yankees in the final game of an interleague set. Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees rely on the long ball, and they'll experience a major park downgrade in South Beach.

Miami is a game below the .500 mark, but don't be fooled.  They've climbed out of a huge hole to get to this point.  The Marlins have consistently been winning between 70% and 80% of their games over the past two months.  They have won eight of their last ten. 

Cabrera allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Monday.  He's faced these Marlins 26 times, allowing just six hits and one homer (courtesy of Ryan McMahon, who is just 2-for-10 against Cabrera). 

The Marlins’ white-hot lineup are 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the past month and take on Luis Gill (a right-hander) in his season debut.

Do take the Marlins +103 here

August 2, 2025

Dodgers vs. Rays

PITCHING PROBABLES: Dodgers: Blake Snell (0-0); Rays: Drew Rasmussen (8-5, 2.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 87 strikeouts)

The Dodgers opened as a -130 favorite here, but that number dropped to -112.  That does give us some pause in terms of pulling the trigger on LA. 

There is an obvious opinion by the books here that Tampa is going to win.  Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.  Even the recreational books we follow have the line at -112.  

And it's not as if folks are backing Tampa Bay here.  72 percent or more of the early moneyline action is on the Dodgers. 

Blake Snell (shoulder) will be activated to start against the Rays.  

Los Angeles Dodgers career statistics vs. Drew Rasmussen are just .208 in a sizable enough sample of 34 at bats.  They have four RBIs and a single home run against him. 

Rasmussen allowed two runs on four hits in five innings in a win over the Yankees on Monday.  He allowed just two runs in four innings his prior start. 

Go with the Rays here +104

August 1, 2025

The Astros vs. Red Sox series has been an Over affair of late with nine of the last ten going over the current total of 8. 

Hunter Brown has developed into one of the league’s best pitchers. He's 5-for-15 against Astros batters. 

Brown took a tough loss after pitching five innings of one-run ball Saturday against the Athletics. He allowed three runs in his prior start. 

Houston Astros career statistics vs. Cooper Criswell are 8-for-20 (.400).

Take the Over 8 here

Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (37-25-2)

• August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
• August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
• August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
• August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
• August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
• August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
• August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
• July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
• July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
• July 29 - No Picks
• July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
• July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
• July 27 - No Picks Today 
• July 26 - No Picks Today 
• July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
• July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
• July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
• July 22 - No Picks Today 
• July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
• July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
• July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
• July 18 - No Picks Today
• July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
• July 12 - No Picks Today
• July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN) 
• July 10 - No Picks Today 
• July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
• July 8 - No Picks Today
• July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
• July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
• July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
• July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
• July 3 - No Picks Today
• July 2 - No Picks Today 
• July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
• June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
• June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
• June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
• June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
• June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
• June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
• June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
• June 17 - No Picks Today
• June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
• June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
• June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
• June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
• June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
• June 12 - No Picks Today
• June 11 - No Picks Today
• June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
• June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
• June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
• June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
• June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
• June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
• May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
• May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
• May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
• May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
• May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
• May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
• May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
• May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
• April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
• April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
• April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
• April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
• April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com