MLB Betting Analysis - August 23, 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Saturday August 23, 2025.
Saturday August 23
Athletics vs. Mariners
Top cappers were all over Seattle with the line set at -165.
The Action Network warns that "The Mariners have looked hopeless against (Jeffrey) Springs in the last couple of years, and now that the lefty is moving away from his homerrific park in Sacramento, I'd expect him to keep racking up outs on fly balls as he continues to repair his strikeout numbers."
Astros vs. Orioles
From The Action Network:
The “Steam Unders with Low OU Support” MLB betting system identifies profitable opportunities where sharp money pushes totals lower while the public continues to back the over.
This combination of sharp steam, limited public support, and realistic scoring ranges highlights inflated totals where the under offers hidden value. With a large sample size and consistent performance, this system has produced a 12% ROI this season and a 14 % ROI since 2019, proving that low-confidence unders with sharp backing can uncover overlooked betting edges in Major League Baseball.
The total here is set at 9 with little movement off that number and the public is heavy on the Over.
Be forewarned that five of the last six in this series have indeed gone Over the current total or otherwise landed on the 9.
Baltimore Orioles career statistics vs. Cristian Javier are just .189 in 32 at bats.
Javier allowed two runs and three hits over five innings to beat the Red Sox in his return from Tommy John prior to his last start, where he had to be removed due to illness
Houston Astros career statistics vs. Dean Kremer have had two home runs and four RBIs in 83 at bats (.265).
Kremer tossed seven scoreless innings and got the win in the Orioles’ 12-0 victory over the Astros on Sunday. He allowed only a run in his eight innings, but he took a loss to the Mariners in his prior start.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks
The Reds have gone from a -132 favorite to -115 despite greater than 65% of the action on Cincinnati.
Arizona has won 60% of their more recent games and has a slight edge in this series.
Top handicappers are on the Under 9 overwhelmingly with the public liking the Over at a 65% clip.
Arizona Diamondbacks career statistics vs. Andrew Abbott are just 2-for-20 at bats.
Abbott tossed seven scoreless innings and got a no-decision in the Reds’ 3-2 victory over the Brewers on Sunday. He had a loss prior to this so we anticipate Abbott bringing his A-Game into this one.
Cincinnati Reds career statistics vs. Jalen Beeks have 9 RBIs in 33 at bats (.333).
Thursday August 21
Red Sox vs. Yankees
There is a lot to like about the Yankees this day.
PITCHING PROBABLES: Red Sox: Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 87 strikeouts); Yankees: Luis Gil (1-1, 5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 14 strikeouts)
From ESPN:
Luis Gil struggled in his first start back after missing the first four months, but he rebounded with a pair of effective outings, yielding just three runs over 10 2/3 combined innings while fanning 11. Next up is a home date with a Boston Red Sox. Away from Fenway Park, the Red Sox offense is below average, fueled by a 26% strikeout rate facing right-handers, the third-highest mark in the league.
Gil has also allowed just four hits from the Red Sox in 28 at bats. Gil allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings and got the win in the Yankees’ 4-3 victory over the Cardinals on Friday.
New York Yankees career statistics vs. Lucas Giolito are 11-for-43 with six RBIs and a homer (.256).
The Over was seeing heavy action with little movement in the number early on.
New York has suddenly gotten hot (8-2 over their last ten games) while Boston has won just three of their last ten. The Red Sox, we should note, have won the last five versus the Yankees. Action is balanced on the moneyline.
One of the hottest cappers we are following right now is all over the Yankees here.
Wednesday August 20
Lopsided Action
- Cardinals Over 8 Marlins (81 percent) - No move
- Mets -160 Nationals (76 percent) - Down from -180
- Giants +131 Padres (74 percent) - Up from +122
- Yankees Over 8.5 Rays (71 percent) No move
- Athletics Over 9 Twins (86 percent) No move
- Mariners Over 8.5 Phillies (80 percent) No move
Top Cappers
- Padres
- Mariners vs. Phillies Over 8.5
Top Analyses
- Yankees vs. Rays
Cam Schlittler is performing his best in the season. He has three straight starts with two earned runs or fewer.
The Yankees starter is coming off a great outing against the Twins, giving up just two hits and one run in five complete innings.
He will also catch the Tampa Bay offense at a low point. The Rays have scored six runs combined in their last three games.
Schlitter also does better on the road with a 3.60 ERA compared to his 4.12 ERA at home.
Drew Rasmussen will get the ball for Tampa tonight, and although he has a more challenging task versus a good Yankees lineup, he has been stellar this season.
Rasmussen holds a 2.08 ERA in his previous seven starts and has a 2.55 ERA at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Rays' home ground.
He has allowed a total of just one run in his past three starts combined, and already successfully faced the Yankees this season, conceding only three runs and seven hits in 10 and 1/3 innings across two outings in April and July.
They are on the Under here. Note though that the last four games in this series have gone well Over this total.
- Cardinals vs. Marlins
From ESPN:
Sandy Alcantara began the month with a pair of clunkers, yielding 11 earned runs in 12 frames. However, he rebounded last time with a quality start in Fenway Park, limiting the Boston Red Sox to just one run over six stanzas, fanning seven while issuing just one free pass. With the Miami Marlins hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, Alcantara is in a good spot to remain effective, facing the least productive offense over the last month. Furthermore, the Cardinals will be without Brendan Donovan, who is sidelined with a left groin strain.
Miami, however, is beginning to come unraveled, losing eight of their last ten games overall.
- Rangers vs. Royals
From ESPN:
In July, Noah Cameron punched out 33 batters in 29 1/3 innings. However, in three August starts, the rookie southpaw racked up just seven strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings, but since he continues to limit walks and keeps the ball in the yard, Cameron continues to be effective with an August ERA of 2.60 ERA. He's due for a visit from the regression monster, but a favorable home date with the Texas Rangers should delay the damage. The Rangers are one of the least potent offenses facing lefties, in large part due to a high strikeout rate.
- Marines vs. Phillies
From ESPN:
Luis Castillo tends to give up home runs in bunches. Earlier in the year, he surrendered eight long balls over four starts, and he's yielded six dingers over his past three outings. While this trend can reverse at any time -- Castillo has served up just four homers in his other 18 efforts -- the righty is a risk when the Seattle Mariners wrap up a series in Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies. Castillo experiences a big park downgrade along with facing one of the most powerful lineups in the league.
Castillo has indeed allowed seven home runs in 93 at bats vs. these Phillies.
Seattle Mariners career statistics vs. Jesus Luzardo are 19 for 56 (.339)
Four of the last five games in this series dating back to last year went into the double digits.
Take the Mariners/Phillies Over 8.5 here
Tuesday August 19
Astros vs. Tigers
The line on this one fell from -170 to -152 despite some decent action on Detroit early at many of the books we monitor.
Mariners vs. Phillies
Heavy lopsided action on the Over but the number has yet to move off the 8.
Athletics
From ESPN:
"On June 8, Jacob Lopez's ERA was 8.31 while his WHIP was 1.79. Even so, The Athletics moved him to the rotation, and the results have been dazzling. Over his last dozen outings, Lopez is 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, fully supported with 77 strikeouts to only 20 walks in 64 1/3 frames. Next up is a road contest with the Minnesota Twins and a lineup that has been in a rut since dealing a couple of key pieces."
Be careful here though as Minnesota is 8-2 against the A's in their last ten.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates
PITCHING PROBABLES: Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (3-2, 3.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 52 strikeouts); Pirates: Mitch Keller (5-11, 4.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 112 strikeouts)
Scherzer limited the Cubs to one run over seven-plus innings in a victory Thursday. He took the loss in his previous start despite allowing just two runs over six innings against the Dodgers on Friday.
He's faced only a handful of Pirates batters but with 80 at bats and a .200 average, Scherzer has been solid, allowing just one home run.
Keller is solid as well. The Blue Jays career statistics vs. Mitch Keller are just 7-for-30 with one home run (.233).
Keller allowed six runs on eight hits in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday and should rebound here.
The total was seeing mostly balanced action but had come down from 8.5 to 8. Both the Under and Toronto should be considered here. We will officially be on the Under 7.5.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (42-33-2)
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
