MLB Betting Analysis - August 16 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Saturday August 16, 2025.
Saturday August 16
Marlins vs. Red Sox
From ESPN:
"After registering a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his prior 84 2/3 frames, Brayan Bello struggled against the San Diego Padres in Petco Park last weekend, yielding five runs in 5 2/3 innings. After compiling 162 1/3 innings while making 30 starts last season, Bello's subpar effort is likely just a hiccup against a strong offense as opposed to hitting a wall. Look for a rebound at home when the Boston Red Sox square off against a pesky Miami Marlins club."
Boston Red Sox career statistics vs. Cal Quantrill have 5 RBIs in 59 at bats (.153).
The total moved from 9.5 to 9 with as much as 73% on the Over.
The Action Network points to a system they like, pushing them towards the Under.
"Evan Abrams' system targets Unders in regular-season MLB series after both teams had low-scoring performances in the previous game. When both the home and visiting teams have scored 0–2 runs in the prior game, the following game is often priced based on regression assumptions. However, many of these games continue to stay under the total due to momentum, fatigue, or strong pitching matchups. Limiting to games 2+ in a series helps isolate these carryover effects and remove opening-game volatility."
Brewers vs. Reds
Cincinnati Reds career statistics vs. Quinn Priester are just 2-for-28 (.071).
Priester allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings and got a no-decision in the Brewers’ 7-6 victory over the Mets on Sunday.
We'd anticipate him to rebound Saturday.
Milwaukee Brewers career statistics vs. Zack Littell are just 4-for-25.
The total has sat on the 9 while the line dropped from -125 to -116 with greater than 70% of action on the Brewers.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
A bunch of top handicappers we like are on the Blue Jays.
The action was on Toronto and the line moved up accordingly (-135 to -165).
The Blue Jays are 7-3 in the last ten games of this series.
Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Patrick Corbin is .311 with Ernie Clement 3-for-4 against him. George Springer has 5 RBIs against him in 15 at bats.
Texas Rangers career statistics vs. Eric Lauer are just .143 in 35 at bats with ZERO RBIs.
Lauer was hit hard in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon, giving up three runs on six hits in his three innings of work.
Friday August 15
Marlins vs. Red Sox
The total on this game has moved from 9 to 8.5 with heavy action on the Over.
This one has been an Over series of late with the Red Sox winning the last three.
White Sox vs. Royals
This one stands out in that the Royals were seeing greater than 80% of the moneyline action yet the line was falling from -183 to -168.
The Royals have won eight of the last ten games in this series while the White Sox only have two wins in their last ten games overall. Kansas City has won five of their last ten.
Mariners vs. Mets
Exercise caution here. We won't be backing the Mets but ESPN has an interesting concern about the Mariners.
"Splits facing left-handed pitching are precarious, especially in a sample of just over a week. For the season, the Seattle Mariners sport an average lineup facing left-handers, but since the trade deadline, they have one of the worst offenses against southpaws, even after acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. This is one of the reasons that Sean Manaea lands so high on Friday's starting pitcher rankings. The New York Mets lefty stumbled in his past two starts, but since debuting in mid-July, Manaea recorded 30 strikeouts with only six walks over 27 frames. His 3.37 xFIP indicates that there is some small sample noise in his 4.33 ERA."
Thursday August 14
Cubs @ Blue Jays
Max Scherzer posted four quality starts over his last five outings, including the last three. One was against the Los Angeles Dodgers and another facing the Detroit Tigers, so a matchup with the Chicago Cubs is less daunting than it might be for a less experienced pitcher. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Cubs for a 3:07 p.m. ET matinee. Over the past month, the Cubs recorded the seventh lowest wOBA versus right-handers. (source: ESPN)
Early action was around 60% on the Blue Jays moneyline, so nothing really significant in terms of lopsided wagering here.
Top cappers all over the Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Matthew Boyd are 6-for-16 with three RBIs and a homer. A limited sampling but that's a very high .375.
Chicago Cubs career statistics vs. Max Scherzer are just 23-for-106 with 21 RBIs (.217).
Cubs are a -108 favorite here.
Toronto has won 6 of their last 10 games overall while Chicago has won just four.
We will be on the Blue Jays here -103
Marlins @ Guardians
Very lopsided action on the total Thursday morning with 90% or greater on the Over 7.5. This could even out as the day progresses but definitely watch if the books do not move to 8 in order to encourage more action on the Under.
Tuesday's game witnessed 17 runs being scored with Miami securing the win.
Edward Cabrera allowed one run in eight innings and got the win in the Marlins’ 5-1 victory over the Braves on Friday and he allowed just one run in his previous start. Regression is possible here.
The Guardians do sport the fifth lowest wOBA facing righties, so an Under is indeed possible, especially with this series staying Under 8 in five of the last eight meetings dating back to 2023.
Pay Per Head MLB Betting Options for Today's Games
These Pay Per Head betting options available courtesy of our friends at AcePerhead. Betting software for as little as $3 per player per week.
MLB - GAME LINES
MLB - 1ST 5 FULL INNINGS
MLB - 3 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 7 INNINGS LINE
MLB - 1ST 5 INN WINNER (3-WAY)
MLB - 1ST INNING WINNER (3 WAY)
MLB - TEAM TOTALS
MLB - ALTERNATE RUNLINES & TOTALS
MLB - TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST SCORING INNING
MLB - DOUBLE RESULT
MLB - WINNING MARGIN
MLB - HOME RUN MARKET
MLB - SCORE 1ST INNING
MLB - 1ST INNING EXACT HITS
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE 1ST
MLB - TEAM TO SCORE FIRST WINS THE GAME
MLB - TOTAL HITS
MLB - TOTAL RUNS ODD/EVEN
MLB - SERIES PRICES
MLB - HITS +RUNS +ERRORS
MLB - 2025 MLB WORLD SERIES WINNER
MLB - 2025 NATIONAL LEAGUE WINNER
MLB - 2025 AMERICAN LEAGUE WINNER
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (40-29-2)
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 ()
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 ()
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
