What Could Cause California Chrome to Lose the Preakness? Any Contenders?

California Chrome has what it takes to win the 2014 Preakness, make no mistake about it, and he has decent value at -150 considering the competition (or lack thereof).  But there are ways he can lose and bettors must be aware of these possibilities.

Nick Kling of the Saratogian suggests one possible scenario:

California Chrome has, on occasion, broken slowly from the starting gate. He drew post position three for the Preakness. If he is away tardily there is the possibility he might get pinched and shuffled back in the earliest stage of the race.

Health concerns related to California Chrome have also diminished heading into Saturday’s big race.  A cough heard Thursday morning was determined to be a blister in his throat (apparently something that doesn’t bother horses much).  He had a similar blister in his throat heading into the Kentucky Derby and we all know what happened there.

As for contenders: Social Inclusion at 8-1 odds matches up well with California Chrome.  This is a speed horse that has enjoyed some solid performances.  There is some question as to whether Social Inclusion will favor the dirt.

While California Chrome is the favorite to win this year’s Preakness Stakes, his final time of 2:03.66 was the slowest Kentucky Derby on a fast track since 1974.

Kling writes:

The colts considered to be legitimate early speed, BAYERN, SOCIAL INCLUSION, and PABLO DEL MONTE, all drew outside California Chrome. That could give them leverage to keep the favorite bottled up.

Espinoza avoided that prospect in the Derby by reining his horse off a pair of front-runners, then steering him outside for clear running. The ease of which that was accomplished suggests it should be the same today. However, anyone who has watched horse racing for longer than 10 minutes knows that “should” is not a guarantee.

These are your latest Preakness Stakes overnight odds heading into Saturday’s big race.

1. Dynamic Impact 12/1 (opened 18/1, dipped to 10/1)
2. General A Rod 18/1 (opened 18/1, went to 30/1 long odds Thursday)
3. California Chrome -155 (opened +150, odds have stayed at -155)
4. Ring Weekend 43/1 (opened 30/1, moved to 43/1 where they are holding)
5. Bayern 10/1 (opened 10/1, moved to 16/1)
6. Ria Antonia 36/1 (opened 40/1, got cut to 34/1)
7. Kid Cruz 12/1 (early 20/1 odds through Friday morning, now slashed)
8. Social Inclusion 8/1 (opened 3.5/1, moved to 9/1)
9. Pablo Del Monte 33/1 (opened 18/1, moved to 33/1 and unchanged)
10. Ride On Curlin 10/1 (had been at 8/1 all week)

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com