What Are the Payout Odds if So Happy Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?

Submitted by Mary Montgomery on

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Mary Montgomery

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So Happy
  • So Happy pays $1500 for every $100 bet should he win this year's Kentucky Derby

  • So Happy won the Santa Anita, a prep race which has produced the third highest number of Kentucky Derby winners

  • This will be trainer Mark Glatt's first entry in this race

The prep race generally recognized as producing the third-most Kentucky Derby winners is the Santa Anita with 19.  The Florida Derby has produced the most winners at 25 followed by the Blue Grass Stakes with 23. 

This year's Santa Anita winner is So Happy with a payout potential of $1500 for every $100 bet.  Previous to that win, So Happy finished 3rd at the San Felipe. 

His win was a convincing one, suggesting he is peaking at just the right time. 

So Happy was also a long shot to win. 

Trainer Mark Glatt's wife, Dena, passed away right shortly after that win.

“Some of it’s amazing. Some of it’s so sad,” Smith said following that victory. “It’s just an emotional roller coaster, I can imagine, for Mark. He’s so happy on one hand, and then he’s so sad on the other because Dena’s not with him. But she is. I really feel like she is. I feel her presence, and I know how much she liked this horse.”

Other Pros

  • Jockey Mike Smith has enjoyed success in the Kentucky Derby, winning in both Giacomo in 2005 and again with Justify in 2018, a horse that won go on to win the Triple Crown.
  • Since 1999, Smith has enjoyed five top three finishes in the Kentucky Derby.
  • Already handled a longer prep distance, which is a key stepping stone to the Derby’s 1¼ miles
  • No. 8 post position has produced the second most wins in the Kentucky Derby at 9 (tied with the No. 10 spot)

Other Cons

  • Glatt has nominal Kentucky Derby experience, having raced just one horse in 2022.  That horse, Taiba, finished a distant 12th.
  • Only three other trainers Ben Jones (Lawrin in 1938), Graham Motion (Animal Kingdom in 2011) and Doug O'Neill (Nyquist in 2016)  won with his first starter, so this situation is especially rare.
  • The Kentucky Derby field is deeper than what So Happy faced in California

2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win

All odds courtesy of BetOnline here

PostHorse Odds
1Renegade4-1
2Albus30-1
3Intrepido50-1
4Litmas Test30-1
5Right to Party30-1
6Commandment6-1
7Danon Bourbon20-1
8So Happy15-1
9The Puma10-1
10Wonder Dean30-1
11Incredibolt20-1
12Chief Wallabee8-1
13Silent Tactic20-1
14Potente20-1
15Emerging Market15-1
16Pavlovian30-1
17Six Speed50-1
18Further Ado6-1
19Golden Tempo30-1
20Fulleffort20-1

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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