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Pavlovian is a long shot to win this year's Kentucky Derby, paying $3000 for every $100 bet should he win
The horse is trained by Doug O'Neill, who already has two Kentucky Derby wins under his belt
This will be Mario Gutierrez's 4th Kentucky Derby start with this three previous starts each resulting in impressive finishes (two wins and a 3rd place showing)
Pavlovian will pay out 30-1 odds with a win at this year's Kentucky Derby.
He is trained by Doug O'Neill, who is tied with Todd Pletcher for the second most wins in a Kentucky Derby for those entering a horse (or horses) in this year's race. Only Bob Baffert has more wins at six.
Pavlovian's jockey, Mario Gutierrez, has won two Kentucky Derby races, once on board I'll Have Another in 2012 and again on board Nyquist in 2016. Amazingly, Gutierrez has only three Kentucky Derby starts. He rode Battle of Midway in 2017 and finished 3rd.
Pavlovian finished 2nd in his most recent start in the Louisiana Derby following a win at the Sunland Derby.
It's fair to say he has the most experience of any entry coming into this race.
“I think a little bit of both,” O’Neill said. “For a horse to start at the 4 1/2-furlong races in May of his 2-year-old season, it just shows a real durable horse. I would say he’s kind of a throwback horse. In credit to the Reddams. They bred him, and he’s just a real durable sort.”
Other Pros
- His progression suggests he’s peaking late, which is ideal for Derby timing.
- Battle tested with 10 career starts (more than most Derby horses).
- Has a blend of speed and stamina, suggesting 1¼ miles is within reach.
Other Cons
- A Sunland Derby winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, but it has happened only once, in 2009 with the 50-1 long short Mine That Bird.
- Only two wins out of ten starts.
- Top speed figures are below the elite contenders.
- The No. 16 post position start is far from ideal.
2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win
All odds courtesy of BetOnline here
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 |
| 4 | Litmas Test | 30-1 |
| 5 | Right to Party | 30-1 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 20-1 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 |
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
