What Are the Payout Odds if TO Password Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
May/02/2024

Japan has seen a hotbed in horse racing over the last few years, but no horse from Japan has ever won a Kentucky Derby.  Can that change this year with TO Password?  He's coming in at 35-1 odds for a payout potential of $3500 on every $100 bet.

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TO Password was sired by Copano Rickey out of the King Kamehameha mare T O Rachel.

Japanese horse racing is like a family affair.

"Other Japanese connections are great friends, all of us," said T O Password's trainer Daisuke Takayanagi in remarks translated by racing manager Hiroshi Ando. "That's why everybody told me a lot of information from their experiences."

This will be Takayanagi's first Kentucky Derby.

TO Password has less experience than his Japanese counterpart racing in this year's Derby, Forever Young.

Key Factors That Could Lead to TO Password Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Past Performance (6)

He's won both of his races, the Fukuryu Stakes and the Newcomer.

Jockey (6)

Kazushi Kimura took his riding talents from Japan to North America, where he was honored this month with his third consecutive Sovereign Award as Canada’s champion jockey. He also won a Sovereign in 2018 and Eclipse Award in 2019 as the top apprentice jockey. Riding winters at Santa Anita and summers at Woodbine, Kimura had a career year in 2023 with $8,798,122 in earnings and 175 wins, including Gold Phoenix’s 10-1 upset in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. - Source: Horse Racing Nation

Why TO Password Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Post Position (2)

One of the worst.  Tomy Lee and Venetian Way posted back-to-back wins in 1959 and 1960 from the ninth post, but a horse has not won from here since 1972 (Riva Ridge).

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It's Just a Matter of Time

"Japanese horses have been formidable for years now on an international stage. It's just a matter of time until one of them wins the Kentucky Derby if they keep supporting the Derby the way they are currently. He's a perfect 5-for-5. He won the UAE Derby despite going four wide on both turns". - Source: Bloodhorse

Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby

After Post Position Draw
1     Dornoch         +2000
2     Sierra Leone         +300
3     Mystik Dan         +2200
4     Catching Freedom         +900
5     Catalytic         +4000
6     Just Steel         +2500
7     Honor Marie         +1600
8     Just a Touch         +1100
10     TO Password         +3500
11     Forever Young         +800
12     Track Phantom         +2700
13     West Saratoga         +4500
14     Endlessly         +2600
15     Domestic Product         +2500
16     Grand Mo the First         +5000
17     Fierceness         +275
18     Stronghold         +2000
19     Resilience         +2400
20     Society Man         +4000
21     AE/21 Epic Ride         +5000

Early

1     Fierceness         +275
3     Track Phantom         +2000
4     Dornoch         +2000
5     Sierra Leone         +325
6     Hades         +4000
7     Mystik Dan         +2000
11     Epic Ride         +5000
13     Catching Freedom         +1000
15     Honor Marie         +2000
17     Domestic Product         +2200
19     Just Steel         +2500
20     Resilience         +2000
29     Stronghold         +2000
30     Just A Touch         +1700
34     Forever Young         +800
38     Encino         +2800
43     Endlessly         +2500
49     Common Defense         +6600
50     West Saratoga         +6600
51     T O Password         +7500
52     Catalytic         +6000
53     Society Man         +6600
54     Grand Mo The First         +7500

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