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At 15-1 odds for a payout of $1500 for every $100 bet, Dornoch certainly is among the top contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby. Below we take a look at some qualities that may increase Dornoch's chances of winning as well as some potential pitfalls.
Dornoch is a 3 year old colt sired by Good Magic out of the Big Brown mare Puca. He was trained by Danny Gargan and has raced for West Paces Racing LLC.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Dornoch Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Pedigree (8)
Good Magic x Puca, by Big Brown produced last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. There are few more proven pedigree angles than that.
Mudder (9)
The two-year-old clocked 1 1/8 miles over the muddy, sealed surface in 1:50.30 at this year's Remsen for the win. So if it looks like a wet day, this might be your horse.
Jockey (7)
Luis Saez sort of won a Kentucky Derby. He rode Maximum Security to finish first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby but was subsequently disqualified due to interference. The two later won the world's richest race, the $20,000,000 Saudi Cup, in 2020.
Past Performance (6)
Prior to his 4th place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes, Dornoch had won three straight races including two that were graded.
Fountain of Youth Winner (6)
Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth, a race that has produced a total of 13 Kentucky Derby winners, though only one in the last 29 years, Orb in 2013.
More Reason to Bet on Dornoch (5)
He currently ranks eighth on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 75.
Why Dornoch Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Post Position Draw (2)
It's good to be number one, that is if you're not a horse participating in the Kentucky Derby. This outside position is the most dreaded and that's exactly where Dornoch will start from.
Last Race Finished 4th (4)
Dornach finished 4th in his most recent race, the Blue Grass Stakes.
Remsen Winner (4)
Great that he won it but this prep race has only produced six Kentucky Derby winners and none since Thunder Gulch took the 1994 Remsen and 1995 Kentucky Derby.
He did beat co-favorite Sierra Leone in this race, we should note.
Trainer (4)
Nothing against Danny Gargan. He's just never won a Kentucky Derby.
“I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. I don’t think we have him where you will see the best of him in the Fountain of Youth,” the trainer said. “I think you will see a solid performance like he does, but I’m thinking maybe the next race will be a lot stronger.”
In 2022-23, Gargan trained Remsen Stakes winner Dubyuhnell who would go on to finish just 11th in the Florida Derby.
Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby
After Post Position Draw
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +1500
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
Early
1 Fierceness +275
3 Track Phantom +2000
4 Dornoch +2000
5 Sierra Leone +325
6 Hades +4000
7 Mystik Dan +2000
11 Epic Ride +5000
13 Catching Freedom +1000
15 Honor Marie +2000
17 Domestic Product +2200
19 Just Steel +2500
20 Resilience +2000
29 Stronghold +2000
30 Just A Touch +1700
34 Forever Young +800
38 Encino +2800
43 Endlessly +2500
49 Common Defense +6600
50 West Saratoga +6600
51 T O Password +7500
52 Catalytic +6000
53 Society Man +6600
54 Grand Mo The First +7500
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
