Written by :
Published on :
Commandment has long 6-1 odds that would pay out $600 for every $100 bet
His win at this year's Florida Derby provides a huge edge for this year's Kentucky Derby
Commandment will pay out $600 for every $100 bet to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Commandment's win at this Florida Derby provides him with quite the boost coming into Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Florida Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 25 times (more than any other prep race)
By the slimmest of margins -- a photo finish -- Commandment won the Florida Derby, overtaking The Puma (who is listed at 10-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby). Horses that fight in close finishes often translate well to Derby conditions.
It was the fourth consecutive win for Commandment.
"He's a racehorse, bottom line," said trainer Brad Cox, who saddled the Florida Derby winner for the second consecutive year. "He always shows up. ... He's a Grade 1 winner. Florida Derby's a big race. Proud of the horse. Very proud of the horse."
Brad Cox has one Kentucky Derby victory. Mandaloun won in 2021 after Medina Spirit was disqualified.
Jockey Luis Saez won his only Kentucky Derby in 2019 with Country House, but only after Maximum Security was disqualified.
Other Pros
- Has shown the ability to settle, respond to cues, and finish willingly.
- Coming off a peak effort in late March gives him a classic 5-week Derby spacing, which historically has been met with great success in terms of a very effective prep-to-Derby timeline.
- Horses breaking from Post 10 in the Kentucky Derby have won 9 times.
Other Cons
- His numbers are competitive, but not clearly superior to the top contenders.
- Churchill Downs is a different surface and environment, which not all horses handle equally.
- He is not a dominant closer.
2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win
All odds courtesy of BetPhoenix here
Further Ado will pay out $600 for every $100 bet to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby (3).
He is ridden by John Velazquez, who has run the most Kentucky Derby races of any jockey taking part in this year's race.
Trainer Brian Cox has won the Kentucky Derby in 2021 - well, sort of. His horse Mandaloun was awarded the win after the disqualification of Medina Spirit.
Further Ado won three of his last four starts and finished 2nd at the Tampa Bay Derby. His last win was at the Blue Grass.
24 horses have pulled off the Blue Grass Stakes → Kentucky Derby double, but none since 2007, making it a historically strong—but recently cold—prep pipeline.
Further Ado's Blue Grass win should still be considered an edge here.
What's not an edge is the post position start. No. 18. Only one horse has won from this spot. The post position start alone mostly wipes out all the positives surrounding this horse.
Other Pros
- Doesn’t need the lead—can sit mid-pack and make a move.
- Bred to handle 1¼ miles, the Derby distance that trips up many horses.
Other Cons
- He hasn’t posted the kind of top-tier speed numbers that typically win the Derby.
- Doesn’t have a signature victory in a major prep like the Florida Derby or Santa Anita Derby.
2026 Kentucky Derby Odds to Win
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 |
| 4 | Litmas Test | 30-1 |
| 5 | Right to Party | 30-1 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 20-1 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 |
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
