What Are the Payout Odds if Burnham Square Wins This Year's Kentucky Derby?
Burnham Square will offer a payout of $1900 for every $100 bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Burnham Square is a 3 year old gelding and has raced from 2024 to 2025. He was sired by Liam's Map out of the Scat Daddy mare Linda. He was trained by Ian R.
Key Factors That Could Lead to Burnham Square Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby
Past Performance (9)
Burnham Square chased down East Avenue from the back of the pack and won by a nose in the storm-delayed $1.25 million Blue Grass at Keeneland, taking over the qualifying points lead for next month’s Kentucky Derby in the process.
The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes has gone on to win the second most Kentucky Derby races. The Florida Derby winner has enjoyed the most success but this year's victor in that one, Tappan Street, was scratched from this year's Kentucky Derby.
He also won the Holy Bull.
A 4th place finish at the Fountain of Youth in between these races doesn't do much to stain this record.
Jockey (8)
Brian Hernandez has won the Kentucky Derby once, and that just happened to be last year aboard Mystik Dan.
Hernandez's 2024 season included multiple Grade 1 victories. He won the DK Horse Acorn Stakes and the Coaching Club American Oaks aboard Thorpedo Anna.
Post Position (9)
Eight Kentucky Derby winners have started from the No. 8 post position. This makes it one of the more successful gates in Derby history, tied with post No. 10 for the second-most wins, just behind post No. 5.
Burnham Square benefitted significantly from Rodriguez' Thursday afternoon scratch.
Trainer (6)
Ian Wilkes has not yet won the Kentucky Derby as a head trainer but has been a part of two victories in supporting roles. In 1990, he served as an exercise rider and groom for Unbridled under trainer Carl Nafzger. Later, in 2007, he was Nafzger’s assistant trainer when Street Sense won the Derby.
Wilkes secured two Grade 3 victories with the mare Walkathon, winning both the Endeavour Stakes and the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes.
He has maintained a solid record, with 34 wins and over $4.3 million in earnings, reflecting a 12% win rate and a 36% in-the-money percentage
To date, he has had 13 wins at Churchill Downs.
More Reasons to Like Burnham Square (7)
His Beyer Speed Figures have improved with every race of his career. If that trend continues, watch out! Closer should get the early pace he needs.
Why Burnham Square Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby
Reasons to Avoid Burnham Square (3)
Only two out of 71 geldings to run in the Derby have won, both were relatively recent at least — Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009).
Updated Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions
- Gate 1: Citizen Bull (17-1)
- Gate 2: Neoequos (57-1)
- Gate 3: Final Gambit (17-1)
- Gate 4: American Promise (13-1)
- Gate 5: Admire Daytona (39-1)
- Gate 6: Luxor Cafe (15-1)
- Gate 7: Journalism (7-2)
- Gate 8: Burnham Square (19-1)
- Gate 9: Grande (19-1)
- Gate 10: Flying Mohawk (36-1)
- Gate 11: East Avenue (33-1)
- Gate 12: Publisher (30-1)
- Gate 13: Tiztastic (20-1)
- Gate 14: Render Judgment (13-1)
- Gate 15: Coal Battle (30-1)
- Gate 16: Sandman (5-1)
- Gate 17: Sovereignty (11-1)
- Gate 18: Chunk of Gold (33-1)
- Gate 19: Owen Almighty (44-1)
- Gate 20: Baeza (50-1)
Early Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby
*Listed in order of post position
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | Trainer | Jockey | Odds* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 20-1 |
| 2. Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat** | 30-1 |
| 3. Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luan Machado | 30-1 |
| 4. Rodríguez | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 12-1 |
| 5. American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juárez | 30-1 |
| 6. Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 30-1 |
| 7. Luxor Café | Noriyuki Hori | João Moreira | 15-1 |
| 8. Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 3-1 |
| 9. Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12-1 |
| 10. Grande | Todd Pletcher | John Velázquez | 20-1 |
| 11. Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 |
| 12. East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 20-1 |
| 13. Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 14. Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 15. Render Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 16. Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas | 30-1 |
| 17. Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 18. Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Júnior Alvarado | 5-1 |
| 19. Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 30-1 |
| 20. Owen Almighty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 30-1 |
| 21. Baeza - ae | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 12-1 |
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